Trader warns bitcoin faces downside pressure as gold continues to surge

Crypto markets found some stability after an early-week slide, but bitcoin continued to underperform gold and silver as macro trades dominated following the Federal Reserve’s policy pause.

Bitcoin remained under pressure as a firmer U.S. dollar and strong performance in commodities drew attention away from digital assets. The largest cryptocurrency slipped below $88,500 on Thursday after briefly trading above $89,000 earlier in the session, extending a choppy, range-bound week.

Ether edged back toward $2,950, while solana, XRP and dogecoin recorded deeper intraday losses of between 2% and 4%. The declines came alongside a strengthening dollar and softer risk sentiment across markets, leaving crypto trailing both commodities and equities.

Commodities continued to lead. Gold hovered near record territory after topping $5,500 an ounce earlier in the week, while silver and copper remained elevated following sharp rallies. Strength across metals has been supported by earlier dollar weakness, geopolitical uncertainty and increased demand for assets seen as stores of value amid concerns over government finances.

The dollar rebounded sharply on Wednesday, with the dollar index posting its largest one-day gain since November. The move followed comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reaffirming the administration’s commitment to a strong-dollar policy, countering speculation that officials were comfortable with sustained currency weakness.

That rebound coincided with the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged after delivering three cuts late last year. Policymakers indicated they want clearer evidence that inflation is easing before moving again.

While the outcome was widely expected, the Fed’s steady-policy message helped settle currency markets after several days of volatility driven by fiscal concerns and political pressure on the central bank.

Against that backdrop, crypto assets have remained sidelined. Bitcoin, often described as a hedge against currency debasement, has failed to match gold’s advance and is now trading about 30% below its October peak, even as metals and global equities sit near record highs.

Traders say bitcoin continues to behave more like a high-beta risk asset than a macro hedge, responding primarily to swings in the dollar and broader liquidity conditions.

“Along with an 8% weakening of the dollar from April to June last year, bitcoin rose by more than 50%,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro. “More recently, a 4% drop in the dollar index in less than two weeks coincided with a 30% jump in silver and a 15% rise in gold.”

Kuptsikevich added that bitcoin’s technical outlook remains fragile. “Bitcoin is attempting to consolidate above $89,000, a key resistance level reinforced by the 50-day moving average,” he said. “Its position relative to this curve points to a bearish market. While support near $85,000 has held, trading roughly a third below the highs of the past two months is a negative signal.”

Recent price action has reinforced that trend, with crypto lagging during the metals rally and failing to respond meaningfully to earlier dollar weakness.

With the Fed decision now behind markets, attention is shifting to upcoming megacap technology earnings and whether moves in equities, bonds or currencies trigger fresh cross-asset volatility.

For now, bitcoin appears locked in consolidation, holding key support levels but lacking the momentum to rejoin the trades driving global markets.