History repeats for bitcoin, with November lows shaping a familiar start-of-year pattern.

Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, historically aligned with halving events, sees periods of rapid gains followed by major corrections, typically spanning roughly four years from peak to peak.

Some analysts question whether the cycle will hold in 2026. U.S.-listed bitcoin ETFs have taken in $57 billion in inflows, Strategy (MSTR) acts as a near-perpetual buyer, and early holders distributed bitcoin at unprecedented levels above $100,000. In addition, 2025 ended as a down year, defying the parabolic peak suggested by the traditional cycle.

Yet evidence suggests the cycle remains intact. Bitcoin peaked roughly 18 months after the April 2024 halving and reached $126,000 in October 2025, rebounding strongly from the cycle low of $15,500 during the FTX collapse in November 2022. Notably, the local bottom on Nov. 21, 2025, at $80,524 mirrors the previous cycle low on Nov. 21, 2022, at $15,460.

January has historically been a key month. In 2023, bitcoin topped near $25,000 before falling below $20,000; in 2024, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs launched, coinciding with a local low under $40,000; and in 2025, January aligned with President Trump’s inauguration and a local high near $110,000.

All eyes now turn to January 2026. With a U.S. crypto market structure bill scheduled for a Jan. 15 markup hearing, the month could mark another significant inflection point, potentially signaling a top or bottom in bitcoin’s current cycle.