Bitcoin Pushes Past $63K as Trump Signals Progress on Iran Peace Negotiations

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Fresh U.S. inflation data on Thursday came in mixed, while the European Central Bank raised interest rates for the first time in nearly three years, signaling a renewed tightening cycle in Europe.

Markets now turn to Friday’s trading session, dominated by the debut of SpaceX in what is set to be one of the largest IPOs in history. The company priced shares at $135, raising $75 billion in the offering and surpassing Saudi Aramco’s 2019 record.

SpaceX sold 555.6 million shares at the pricing, implying a fully diluted valuation of roughly $1.8 trillion. The company generates around $19 billion in annual revenue from launches, government contracts, and its Starlink business, but the valuation reflects extremely elevated expectations. It also holds 18,712 bitcoin, worth nearly $1.2 billion at current prices.

Risk assets rallied into the event following geopolitical developments. After President Trump said planned strikes on Iran were canceled due to progress in diplomatic talks, equities surged, with the Nasdaq up 2.4% and the S&P 500 gaining 1.8%. Bitcoin rose to around $63,500, up roughly 2.5% on the day.

Crypto-linked equities also advanced, led by Coinbase (+3.6%), Galaxy Digital (+8.8%), and Strategy (+4.3%).

Earlier in the session, Trump’s Truth Social post confirming a halt to military action pushed markets to intraday highs, pressured oil down around 3%, and pulled Treasury yields lower, while Bitcoin held near $63,400.

Investor demand for SpaceX has been extremely strong. BlackRock reportedly placed orders of at least $5 billion, while retail demand has exceeded $70 billion, according to Bloomberg. However, allocation is expected to be heavily constrained, leaving much of that demand unfilled.

Some investors have funded IPO participation by rotating out of technology stocks, particularly AI and semiconductor names, contributing to recent sector weakness.

Bitcoin market signals remain mixed. The Coinbase Premium Index briefly fell to deeply negative levels, indicating heavier selling pressure on U.S. exchanges relative to offshore venues, even as prices dipped below $63,000 following producer price data.

ETF flows continue to weigh on sentiment, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recording $213.85 million in outflows in a single day and cumulative redemptions exceeding $5.7 billion since mid-May.

Some analysts warn the correction may not be complete, with downside scenarios still pointing toward a possible retest of $50,000 as capital rotates into IPOs and AI-related trades and traders hedge macro and geopolitical uncertainty.

Corporate Bitcoin treasury activity has also weakened, with several publicly listed firms selling portions of holdings to manage debt and liquidity, adding incremental supply into a fragile market structure.

On the macro side, U.S. producer price data delivered a mixed inflation signal, briefly pressuring Bitcoin before stabilization near $62,500. In Europe, the ECB’s rate hike marked a clear policy shift driven by persistent inflation pressures.

Gold slipped to a six-month low, while Bitcoin held above $63,000, with both assets still pressured by higher rate expectations.

Derivatives positioning shows rising leverage. Bitfinex margin longs climbed above 90,000 BTC for the first time since late 2023, suggesting strong directional exposure building even as volatility remains elevated.

Overall, markets remain driven by a mix of macro shifts, geopolitical developments, and a record IPO event, with liquidity flows and positioning dominating short-term price action.