Fear remains priced into options markets even as bitcoin rebounds from recent lows.

Bitcoin climbed back above $68,000 on Thursday, rebounding from a local low near $65,600, even as U.S. spot ETF outflows swelled to $6.8 billion and derivatives markets showed early signs of stabilization. Analysts say a decisive move above $72,000 would be required to confirm a broader bullish shift.

The recovery gathered pace overnight. Since midnight UTC, bitcoin added roughly 2%, while Solana (SOL) rose 2.7% and ether (ETH) gained 1.2%.

Despite the bounce, the broader trend remains under pressure. Bitcoin continues to print lower highs and lower lows, erasing the bulk of gains accumulated in the 12 months through October 2025. In the near term, price action remains range-bound, oscillating between support and resistance. A sustained break above $72,000 is seen as the technical trigger needed to signal a meaningful change in direction.

Meanwhile, U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs have recorded their largest drawdown of the current cycle. Since October, roughly 100,300 BTC have been withdrawn — equivalent to about $6.8 billion in selling pressure layered onto an already fragile market backdrop.

Derivatives positioning shows mixed signals

Market structure in derivatives appears to be stabilizing. Open interest has climbed to $15.8 billion, suggesting the recent wave of leverage flush-outs may be giving way to firmer positioning. Funding rates have flipped from negative to flat or positive across major venues, reaching as high as 10% on platforms such as Bybit and Hyperliquid — a sign that retail sentiment is recovering.

Institutional positioning remains relatively steady, with the three-month annualized futures basis holding around 3%.

In options markets, sentiment has tilted slightly toward calls, with 24-hour volume split 51/49 in favor of upside bets. However, risk hedging demand remains elevated. The one-week 25-delta skew has widened to 17%, and the implied volatility term structure continues to show short-term backwardation.

The elevated front-end volatility indicates traders are still paying a “panic premium” for near-term downside protection, even as longer-dated implied volatility stabilizes around 49%.

Liquidation data reflects continued two-way pressure. Coinglass reported $179 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, with a 56/44 split between longs and shorts. Bitcoin accounted for $59 million, ether $46 million, and other tokens roughly $16 million in notional liquidations. Binance’s liquidation heatmap points to $68,400 as a key level to watch in the event of further upside.

Altcoins show renewed strength

Away from bitcoin, altcoins outperformed overnight. Lending protocol token MORPHO surged more than 12% since midnight UTC, while AI-focused payment token KITE added 11%, extending its 30-day rally to 153%.

DeFi tokens also participated in the rotation. Jupiter (JUP) rose over 3.6% after touching a seven-day low earlier in the week.

Among broader gauges, the CoinDesk Smart Contract Platform Select Index (SCPXC) led performance with a 2.25% gain over 24 hours, closely followed by the CoinDesk Memecoin Index (CDMEME), up 2.2%. The bitcoin-heavy CoinDesk 20 (CD20) rose a more modest 1%, reflecting relatively restrained gains among large-cap tokens.

Altcoins often find traction during periods of consolidation, as traders rotate capital into higher-beta opportunities without fearing they will miss a breakout in major assets such as bitcoin, ether or XRP.