Bitcoin pushes toward $68,000 as gold climbs on renewed U.S.–Iran geopolitical risk.

Geopolitical tensions and a softer tone in U.S. equities are capping risk appetite, with some strategists cautioning that markets could revisit 2024 lows before establishing a more durable recovery.

Crypto prices edged higher during Asia’s Friday morning trade, with bitcoin advancing toward $68,000 after a volatile week that rattled broader risk assets.

Gains were relatively widespread. XRP, Solana’s SOL, DOGE and Cardano’s ADA rose as much as 2%, while ether underperformed, slipping slightly and holding below $2,000 — a level traders appear more focused on defending than celebrating.

The rebound carried the hallmarks of a relief rally rather than a decisive trend reversal. After weeks of sharp swings, price action has unfolded in waves: brief surges attract dip buyers, only for selling pressure to re-emerge near levels where underwater investors can exit at smaller losses.

That said, each successive bounce this week has appeared somewhat sturdier, hinting that forced liquidations may be fading, even if strong conviction buying has yet to return.

Macro forces and geopolitics continue to temper enthusiasm. Gold hovered near $5,000 an ounce following two sessions of gains as investors factored in rising Middle East tensions.

U.S. President Donald Trump said Thursday he would allow 10 to 15 days for negotiations on a potential nuclear deal with Iran, while reports indicated a buildup of American forces in the region. The combination has underpinned demand for safe havens and made it more difficult for risk assets to build sustained momentum.

Wenny Cai, COO at SynFutures, said markets are reassessing expectations after the latest Federal Reserve minutes struck a more hawkish tone, even if rate hikes are not the base case.

“Markets are digesting a more hawkish read-through from the latest Federal Reserve minutes,” Cai said. “The shift isn’t that hikes are suddenly expected, but that policymakers have clearly left the door open if inflation fails to cool further, raising the bar for near-term easing.”

That repricing has lent support to the dollar and marginally tightened financial conditions, she added, a dynamic visible in softer equities and renewed demand for cash-like instruments and short-duration Treasuries.

Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, took a more cautious view. Given the prior market structure and the increasingly defensive tone in U.S. stocks, he said the probability of a retest of local lows — levels last seen in the second half of 2024 — has increased.

On ether, Kuptsikevich noted that the token is holding a long-term support line stretching back to 2020, converging near the $2,000 region. However, he argued that a confirmed breakdown would require a decisive move below recent lows around $1,500.

On-chain data suggests some larger players may be preparing to sell into strength. CryptoQuant reported that bitcoin inflows from major holders to Binance have climbed to record levels, a development that can precede heavier spot supply.

Research firm K33 has drawn parallels between current conditions and the latter phase of the 2022 bear market, which eventually transitioned into an extended period of consolidation.

For now, the market appears capable of staging bounces, but struggles to convert them into a sustained uptrend. Until spot demand outweighs the supply waiting at the next psychological level, rallies may continue to face stiff resistance.