Bitcoin News: $424M ETF Inflows Fail to Lift BTC Above $80,000 as November Nears

Bitcoin slipped below $80,000 despite attracting approximately $424 million in inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs over three consecutive trading sessions. The decline came after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, while two policymakers dissented in favor of a rate increase, adding uncertainty to the outlook for monetary policy.

On October 28, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $137.3 million in net inflows, extending their positive streak to three days. The Fed maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.75%–4%, but the divided decision fueled concerns about a possible rate hike in December.

Bitcoin initially climbed to $81,788 following the announcement before reversing course during Asian trading hours. Weakness across semiconductor stocks spread to broader technology markets, pushing BTC down to $79,710 overnight.

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading near $79,899, down 1.2% over 24 hours and 4.4% for October. If the monthly decline continues, October will mark the second consecutive year in which Bitcoin has ended the month in negative territory.

As November approaches, traders are monitoring several potential market catalysts, including the U.S. midterm elections, upcoming inflation and employment data, and the Fed’s next policy meeting. Prediction markets have priced in a significant probability of a December rate increase, adding another source of uncertainty for risk assets.

Bitcoin ETFs Record $424 Million in Three-Day Inflows

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted roughly $424 million between October 26 and October 28, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) accounting for the largest share of the buying.

According to SoSoValue data, daily flows were as follows:

• October 26: The funds recorded $110.3 million in net inflows, all of which went to BlackRock’s IBIT.
• October 27: Total net inflows reached $176 million, with none of the 12 funds reporting net outflows.
• October 28: The ETFs attracted $137.3 million, including $136 million for IBIT and $1.3 million for Bitwise’s BITB.

The recent recovery followed a sharp reversal on October 22, when the funds registered $635.6 million in outflows, their largest single-day withdrawal since June. BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC each accounted for more than $200 million in withdrawals.

ETF flows for October remained approximately $202 million negative through Monday. However, the subsequent three-day buying streak pushed the monthly balance to roughly $110 million in positive territory.

The 12 funds collectively managed around $104.9 billion in assets, equivalent to approximately 6.4% of Bitcoin’s total market value. Since launching in January 2024, they have accumulated $57.6 billion in net inflows, while IBIT alone holds approximately $66.1 billion.

Despite the return of institutional demand, Bitcoin’s price decline indicates that ETF purchases have not yet been strong enough to offset broader market pressures stemming from economic uncertainty and weakness in technology shares.

Divided Fed Decision Fuels Rate Hike Concerns

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 3.75%–4%, but the decision exposed disagreements among policymakers over the appropriate direction of monetary policy.

The vote passed 10–2, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack favoring a 0.25-percentage-point increase.

The central bank said economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace, while inflation remained elevated. Officials also emphasized the importance of assessing additional economic data before making further policy decisions.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh offered limited guidance on the December meeting, saying he generally opposed forward guidance outside exceptional circumstances or a crisis. He also rejected suggestions that political considerations had influenced the decision ahead of the U.S. midterm elections.

The two dissenting votes strengthened concerns that the Fed could tighten policy further. Figures cited from Polymarket showed the probability of a quarter-point rate increase in December at approximately 77%, close to its level before the meeting.

Bitcoin initially responded positively to the announcement. After trading near $80,860 at 2 p.m. ET, BTC gained around 1.1% over the following two hours to reach $81,788.

The rally subsequently faded as semiconductor stocks weakened. Samsung’s chip division fell short of analyst expectations, sending its shares down more than 5% and putting pressure on technology stocks.

Bitcoin later dropped to $79,710 by 02:00 UTC. More than $350 million in leveraged cryptocurrency positions were liquidated over 24 hours, intensifying the selling pressure.

Key November Events Bitcoin Traders Are Watching

The upcoming economic calendar could influence expectations for another interest-rate increase and shape Bitcoin’s performance in November.

Important dates include:

• October 29: September PCE inflation and third-quarter GDP reports, followed by earnings from Coinbase and Strategy after the market closes.
• October 30: Deribit’s monthly options expiry, involving approximately 135,700 BTC in open contracts valued at around $10.8 billion.
• November 3: U.S. midterm elections.
• November 6: October employment report, following September’s reported addition of 29,000 jobs.
• November 10: October CPI report. Consumer inflation rose 3.7% year over year in September.
• December 9: The Fed’s next scheduled interest-rate decision.

These events could shape investor expectations for monetary policy and influence appetite for riskier assets. Higher interest rates can weigh on Bitcoin by making lower-risk investments more attractive, although the market reaction will also depend on how much of the expected policy path is already reflected in prices.

Does Bitcoin Typically Rally in November?

Bitcoin’s reputation for strong November performance rests on a relatively limited historical record.

Data from Binance shows that BTC gained in only three of the past eight Novembers. Its strongest monthly performances occurred in 2020 and 2024, when it rose 42.8% and 37.2%, respectively. Both rallies followed U.S. presidential elections.

The two midterm election years included in the sample produced negative returns. Bitcoin fell 36.6% in November 2018 and 16.2% in November 2022.

However, an eight-year sample is too small to establish a reliable seasonal pattern. Both negative midterm Novembers also coincided with broader bear markets, making it difficult to determine how much the election cycle contributed to the declines.

Options markets are not currently pricing in an unusually large move. Deribit’s DVOL index, which measures Bitcoin’s implied 30-day volatility, stood at 36.5 on Wednesday, slightly below the 37–39 range recorded over the previous two weeks.

Historical performance therefore provides limited certainty about Bitcoin’s November outlook. Economic data, institutional investment flows, and shifting interest-rate expectations may have a greater influence on prices.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: $79,221 Remains a Critical Support

Bitcoin is testing a key support zone after falling below its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA).

At around $79,899, BTC was trading beneath the 50-day EMA at $80,789. The cryptocurrency crossed this level three times during the previous week, highlighting the market’s struggle to establish a clear short-term direction.

The October 24 low of $79,221 is the nearest major support level. A sustained break beneath this price could expose Bitcoin to additional losses.

Key technical levels include:

• Resistance at $84,898: The October 21 high, where the previous advance stalled.
• Immediate support at $79,221: The October 24 low, which has served as a near-term price floor.
• Lower support between $76,264 and $76,476: The September 2 low and the 200-day EMA.

Bitcoin’s longer-term trend remains relatively stronger. The 200-day EMA has climbed from approximately $72,300 in late August to $76,476. Meanwhile, the 50-day EMA crossed above the 200-day EMA on September 12, marking the first such crossover since November 2025.

Still, the short-term outlook remains vulnerable while BTC trades below its 50-day EMA. A sustained move above $80,789 could help stabilize the price, whereas a break below $79,221 would place the lower support zone in focus.

Bitcoin Outlook: Can ETF Inflows Support a Recovery?

The latest ETF figures point to renewed institutional buying following substantial withdrawals earlier in October. Nevertheless, the return of inflows has not stopped Bitcoin from falling below $80,000.

Uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s next move, the possibility of a December rate increase, and weakness in technology stocks continue to weigh on market sentiment.

Traders will closely monitor upcoming inflation and employment reports for clues about the central bank’s policy direction. Bitcoin’s ability to hold above $79,221 could also help determine whether the current pullback remains limited or develops into a deeper correction.

Although Bitcoin has delivered strong November rallies in some years, historical seasonality does not guarantee another advance. In the near term, economic data, ETF demand, and conditions across broader financial markets are likely to play a more decisive role in determining its direction.