With Volatility Tamed, JPMorgan Sees Bitcoin Undervalued vs. Gold

Bitcoin Trades Below Gold-Adjusted Value as Volatility Hits Record Lows, JPMorgan Says

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at a discount compared with gold as its volatility falls to historic lows, according to JPMorgan (JPM) in a research report Thursday.

The bank noted that Bitcoin’s six-month rolling volatility has declined from nearly 60% at the start of 2025 to approximately 30%, the lowest on record. As a result, BTC is now only about twice as volatile as gold, the narrowest ratio ever observed.

JPMorgan analysts argued that this reduction in volatility makes Bitcoin increasingly attractive for institutional portfolios. On a volatility-adjusted basis, Bitcoin’s market capitalization would need to rise roughly 13%, implying a price near $126,000, to align with gold’s $5 trillion in private investment. By these calculations, BTC is currently undervalued by around $16,000 versus gold, indicating potential upside.

The report, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, attributed part of this trend to rising corporate treasury adoption, with institutional holders now controlling over 6% of total Bitcoin supply—similar to how central bank quantitative easing historically reduced bond volatility.

Corporate adoption is also supported by index inclusion, drawing passive capital inflows. Metaplanet (3350), for example, was upgraded to FTSE Russell’s mid-cap category, while Nasdaq-listed Kindly MD (NAKA) plans a $5 billion capital raise after a $679 million Bitcoin purchase.

New market entrants, including ventures led by Adam Back, aim to rival MARA Holdings’ treasury position, following the strategy popularized by Michael Saylor’s MSTR, JPMorgan noted.