Two Key Elements That Make the Current Bitcoin Bull Market More Durable Than in 2017 and 2020-21

Bitcoin (BTC) has earned a reputation for its volatile price swings, where rapid and steep corrections often interrupted major bull runs. However, the latest rally, which began in early 2023, is standing out for its lower volatility and more gradual price movements.

Data from Glassnode reveals that Bitcoin’s realized volatility—the actual fluctuation in price over the last three months—has averaged less than 50% throughout this bull market. This marks a substantial decline from the 80% to 100% volatility levels experienced during the 2017 and 2020-21 rallies.

Similarly, implied volatility, a forward-looking metric that gauges market expectations of price swings, has been trending downward, as tracked by Volmex’s BVIV index.

The growing market capitalization of Bitcoin, now exceeding $2 trillion and ranking as the seventh largest asset globally, plays a key role in this calming effect. Larger, more liquid markets naturally demand greater capital to create significant price shifts, fostering steadier price action.

Moreover, the introduction of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and clearer regulatory frameworks have encouraged institutional investors to participate, contributing to a more stable investor mix.

Looking back, Bitcoin’s previous bull run from $4,000 to nearly $70,000 was marked by sharp pullbacks exceeding 30%, levels often deemed bear markets in traditional finance.

In contrast, since March 2023, the rally from approximately $30,000 to over $100,000 has exhibited a stepwise pattern — a mix of rapid advances followed by periods of accumulation, providing a healthier foundation for sustained growth.

Glassnode notes that drawdowns in this cycle have generally been shallower, mostly staying below 25%, with only a couple of deeper corrections.

This improved resilience is linked to the reduction of excessive leverage. Exchanges that once offered leverage as high as 100x have tightened restrictions, reducing speculative risks. This has helped minimize liquidation cascades and sharp price drops, supporting a sturdier and more mature Bitcoin market.