These catalysts could lift Bitcoin as Trump sets a three-week deadline to end the Iran war.

Asian markets staged a sharp rebound, with regional equities surging and U.S. futures climbing after renewed optimism that the Iran conflict could wind down in the coming weeks. The move followed comments from Donald Trump suggesting the war may conclude within two to three weeks—even without a formal agreement with Tehran—while a newly approved low-cost bitcoin ETF from Morgan Stanley added a separate tailwind for crypto sentiment.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index jumped 4%, marking its strongest session since hostilities began, as risk appetite returned across the region. Technology shares led the rally, with major chipmakers posting outsized gains. U.S. equity futures followed suit, with the S&P 500 on track for its biggest advance since May. Meanwhile, oil prices trimmed earlier losses as reports indicated the UAE may assist in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, potentially by force.

In crypto markets, the reaction remained comparatively muted. Bitcoin hovered around $67,950, up just 0.2% over the past 24 hours, continuing its sideways consolidation despite the broader risk-on backdrop. Ether outperformed modestly, rising 1.6% to $2,100, while XRP, dogecoin, and BNB posted slight gains. Solana stood out on the downside, slipping 0.7% and extending its weekly decline.

The divergence between crypto and equities has been a defining feature of recent weeks. While stock markets have reacted sharply to geopolitical headlines, bitcoin has remained rangebound between $65,000 and $73,000, showing resilience but lacking directional conviction.

Geopolitics remained the dominant catalyst. Trump’s announcement of a scheduled national address, where he promised an “important update” on Iran, fueled hopes of de-escalation. At the same time, Iran’s president signaled a willingness to end the conflict, provided assurances are made against future aggression.

Beyond geopolitics, structural developments in the crypto market are beginning to take shape. Morgan Stanley’s approval to offer a bitcoin ETF with a 14-basis-point fee—well below the industry average—opens access to a vast advisory network overseeing $6.2 trillion in assets. This marks a significant expansion in distribution channels for bitcoin exposure.

Market participants are increasingly pointing to a combination of factors that could support bitcoin in the near term: institutional access via major financial platforms, continued capital flows into bitcoin-focused investment vehicles, and the potential resolution of geopolitical tensions.

Gold, typically a safe-haven asset during periods of conflict, has shown an unusual pattern. Despite rising for a fourth consecutive session to near $4,700, the metal recently logged its steepest monthly decline since 2008, highlighting an ongoing break from historical behavior during wartime conditions.

Attention now turns to Trump’s upcoming address. Whether it delivers concrete steps toward de-escalation or simply adds another layer of uncertainty will likely determine if the current rally in risk assets has staying power. As some analysts caution, markets may soon demand tangible progress rather than continued rhetoric.