BTC struggles to break $73,000 despite rising hopes of a U.S.–Iran diplomatic breakthrough

U.S. equities, government bonds, and crude oil rallied on renewed hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East, while crypto markets continued to lag despite improving sentiment across traditional risk assets.

Axios reported that U.S. and Iranian negotiators have drafted a 60-day memorandum of understanding aimed at extending the ceasefire and beginning discussions on Iran’s nuclear program. President Donald Trump has not yet approved the agreement.

The development came after overnight U.S. airstrikes on an Iranian military facility near the Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy shipping corridor that has been a key driver of macro volatility in recent months.

Despite skepticism around repeated ceasefire headlines, markets responded positively. The Nasdaq reversed earlier losses to rise around 0.6%, while WTI crude slipped below $90 per barrel as concerns over supply disruption eased.

Crypto markets failed to participate in the rebound. Bitcoin remained under pressure, slipping back below $73,000 after an intraday recovery attempt, extending a roughly 2.7% decline over 24 hours and underscoring persistent weakness in digital asset sentiment.

Following the Axios report, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that Washington would not tolerate any attempts to impose tolls on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. He pledged aggressive sanctions against any parties involved in disrupting commercial traffic through the waterway, including indirect facilitators.

On the macroeconomic front, the first inflation reading released under Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh showed renewed price pressures. The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index rose to 3.8% year over year in April, up from 2.8% in February, marking the highest level in nearly three years.

Fitch Ratings’ head of U.S. economics, Olu Sonola, said the data reflects a deteriorating inflation backdrop. “This is not just a headline inflation problem: core inflation is moving the wrong way too,” he said. “Price pressures are likely to persist over the next few months… The Fed is stuck — and the heat is clearly being turned up.”

While equities and bonds reacted to easing geopolitical risk and shifting macro data, crypto markets remained subdued, highlighting an ongoing divergence in risk appetite between digital assets and traditional markets.