CryptoQuant warns that Bitcoin’s expanding holder base obscures softening demand from new buyers

Bitcoin’s record-high long-term holder supply is usually seen as a sign of strong conviction, but CryptoQuant argues it may instead reflect fading demand and a slowdown in new buyer participation.

Bitcoin traded around $73,500 on Friday morning in Hong Kong, according to CoinDesk market data, roughly 10% below recent highs near $80,000, as on-chain indicators point to a market increasingly driven by lower activity rather than fresh accumulation.

CryptoQuant data shows 15.8 million BTC is now classified as long-term holder supply, an all-time high. While this is typically interpreted as accumulation and conviction, the firm says it may instead signal reduced turnover and a shortage of new entrants into the market.

In a typical bull cycle, new demand absorbs selling from existing holders, and coins gradually mature into long-term status as investors hold through gains. That process reflects expanding participation and healthy liquidity. CryptoQuant argues the current cycle looks different, with coins aging into long-term classification largely because fewer transactions are occurring overall.

The firm estimates short-term holder supply has declined by about 2.2 million BTC since December. Roughly 900,000 BTC of that drop is attributed to Coinbase balances aging beyond the 155-day threshold used to define long-term holders. While this is a technical reclassification, it reinforces the broader trend of declining coin velocity across the market.

CryptoQuant says the result is a thinner underlying structure, where relatively small shifts in buying or selling pressure can have outsized effects on price.

Whale behavior reinforces that view. Wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC are reportedly contracting year over year at the fastest pace of 2026, with monthly balance growth flat since February.

At the same time, “dolphin” wallets holding 100 to 1,000 BTC — often associated with ETFs and corporate treasuries — have also seen growth slow sharply after peaking in October 2025, when ETF inflows were particularly strong.

Other indicators point in the same direction. Glassnode recently reported weakening spot demand and fading ETF inflows, noting that capital flows remain insufficient to sustain moves above key cost-basis levels near $78,000. Its Realized Profit/Loss Ratio, at 1.56, remains below levels typically associated with early-stage bull market expansion.

Prediction markets also reflect subdued expectations. A Polymarket contract tracking Bitcoin’s May 30 close assigns roughly an 84% probability to a trading range between $72,000 and $76,000, suggesting consolidation rather than breakout momentum.

Across on-chain metrics, ETF flows, and derivatives positioning, the common thread is not aggressive selling but a lack of new demand. Bitcoin continues to hold above $70,000, but the underlying market increasingly reflects existing holders maintaining positions while fresh capital inflows remain limited.