SpaceX IPO Frenzy Hits 4x Oversubscription as Crypto Bets Turn Defensive

The SPCX perpetual contract is still trading above SpaceX’s $135 IPO price, but it has fallen sharply from its May highs as traders scale back expectations for a strong first-day pop.

SpaceX, led by Elon Musk, is preparing for a landmark listing that values the company at roughly $1.8 trillion, with shares set at a fixed $135. Investors will only see how the stock actually performs once it begins trading publicly.

Before that happens, Hyperliquid’s “synthetic” SpaceX market is offering one of the only real-time gauges of sentiment ahead of the debut.

That proxy has already seen its premium compress, even though reports suggest the IPO is more than four times oversubscribed.

The 5x-leveraged SPCX perpetual futures contract on Hyperliquid has now declined for three consecutive weeks. It recently traded near $157, down about 27% from its mid-May peak around $216 after briefly reaching $230.

While the contract still sits above the $135 IPO price, it no longer reflects the same enthusiasm seen earlier. In May, it implied a premium of around 60% over the offer price, but that has since narrowed to roughly 16%.

SpaceX has chosen a fixed-price IPO structure, setting the offer at $135 per share without a typical price range. Unlike traditional deals where underwriters adjust pricing during bookbuilding, investors must simply accept or decline the set price.

As a result, the SPCX perpetual has become one of the few continuously updating price signals for SpaceX before its official market debut.

It’s important to note that SPCX does not represent actual shares or ownership rights. It is a cash-settled derivative that allows traders to speculate on where SpaceX stock might open, with real money at risk even before the IPO begins trading.

On the institutional side, demand remains extremely strong. Reuters reported that SpaceX has attracted more than $250 billion in orders for a $75 billion raise, implying heavy oversubscription, though large orders are often inflated in high-profile deals.

Even so, SPCX pricing suggests traders still expect some upside relative to the $135 listing price—just far less than before.

The cooling sentiment may also reflect broader market conditions. Crypto markets have weakened into the IPO window, with bitcoin still below recent highs, while some investors may be raising liquidity to participate in SpaceX allocations—adding pressure across risk assets tied to the same speculative flow.