Bitcoin Stabilizes Following Cooler-Than-Forecast Core CPI Data

Headline inflation rose 0.5% in May, matching expectations, though a softer-than-expected core reading—excluding food and energy—helped lift market sentiment.

The U.S. inflation report broadly aligned with forecasts, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep its policy rate in the 350–375 bps range at its June 17 meeting, while markets still see a potential 25 bps hike by year-end.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index increased 4.2% year-over-year in May, in line with economist estimates and up from 3.8% in April.

On a month-over-month basis, CPI rose 0.5%, matching expectations and slightly easing from April’s 0.6% increase. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, climbed just 0.2%, below forecasts of 0.3% and down from 0.4% previously. Year-over-year core inflation came in at 2.9%, meeting projections and edging higher from 2.8% in April.

Bitcoin (BTC) edged higher after the release but remained under pressure overall, trading just above $61,000 and largely unchanged on the day.

Broader markets weakened, with U.S. stock futures falling across the board. The 10-year Treasury yield rose toward 4.5%, while WTI crude oil extended declines, slipping another 1% to around $88 per barrel.

Ahead of the data, markets were already pricing in a 98% probability that the Federal Reserve would hold rates steady at its June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.