Options data indicates bitcoin carries a 30% probability of slipping below $80,000 by late June.

Bitcoin fell below $91,000 amid renewed tariff concerns from President Donald Trump, with data from both decentralized and centralized trading venues signaling expectations for further declines in the coming months.

Traders on Derive.xyz, a decentralized platform for on-chain options, perpetuals, and structured products, see roughly a 30% probability of bitcoin dropping below $80,000 by the end of June. Similar positioning is visible on Deribit, the largest centralized options exchange.

“Options markets show a clear downside skew, with a 30% chance BTC falls below $80K by June 26, compared to a 19% chance it rallies above $120K over the same period,” Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive, told CoinDesk.

Options allow traders to bet on bitcoin’s price movements through contracts known as calls and puts. Call options profit if BTC rises above a predetermined level, while put options pay out if prices fall below a set threshold. Traders risk only the premium paid for the contract if the market moves against them.

It is this collective positioning in options markets that points to a 30% likelihood of BTC dropping below $80,000 — a level not seen since April 2025, when the cryptocurrency briefly fell to $75,000 amid sweeping U.S. tariffs that rattled global markets.

Concerns over tariffs have resurfaced after Trump threatened a 10% levy on imports from 10 European nations over opposition to his Greenland acquisition plan. Bitcoin has since fallen from $95,000 to around $91,000.

“These rising geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Europe — particularly regarding Greenland — increase the risk of a shift back to a higher-volatility environment, which is not currently priced into spot markets,” Dawson said.

Options data also highlights market expectations for further downside. Skew — which measures the price difference between call and put options — remains negative, signaling near-term fears of a decline. On both Derive and Deribit, open interest is heavily concentrated in put options with strike prices between $75,000 and $80,000, suggesting traders anticipate a drawdown into the mid-$70,000s.