K33 says Bitcoin is tracking patterns seen at the late 2022 bear market bottom

Current price levels may present a compelling long-term entry point for investors willing to endure an extended period of sideways action, according to Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33.

After a sharp selloff earlier this month, Bitcoin (BTC) may be transitioning into the final stages of a bear cycle — though a swift rebound appears unlikely. Lunde said the present environment closely mirrors late September and mid-November 2022, periods that marked the tail end of the previous bear market and were followed by drawn-out consolidation.

At that time, bitcoin traded in a depressed range between $15,000 and $20,000 — roughly 70% below its 2021 high. Today, the asset has stabilized between $65,000 and $70,000. K33’s proprietary regime model, which incorporates derivatives positioning, ETF flows, technical indicators and macroeconomic inputs, suggests the market may once again be nearing a cyclical low.

A cooling market

One hallmark of late-stage bear markets is fading activity — and recent data points in that direction.

Spot trading volumes dropped 59% week-over-week, while perpetual futures open interest sank to a four-month low. Funding rates have also remained negative, indicating subdued speculative appetite. Lunde noted that such cooling-off periods are common after liquidation cascades, as traders absorb losses and recalibrate positioning.

Meanwhile, U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs have experienced a record peak-to-trough reduction in exposure of 103,113 BTC since early October. Despite the pullback, more than 90% of peak bitcoin-denominated exposure remains intact, even after BTC retraced nearly 50%.

Sentiment indicators echo the caution. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index plunged to a historic low of 5 last week and has hovered below 10 for much of the current period — levels typically associated with extreme pessimism.

Near a bottom, but patience required

Taken together, the signals suggest bitcoin is “likely near, or at, a global bottom,” Lunde said, though he expects a prolonged consolidation phase between $60,000 and $75,000. Similar historical setups have tended to produce muted short-term returns before the next major move unfolds.

For long-term investors, however, such environments have historically offered favorable accumulation opportunities — provided they are prepared for patience to be tested.

James Check, an on-chain analyst and co-founder of Checkonchain, reinforced that view, arguing that bitcoin typically spends long stretches moving sideways before erupting in sharp repricing phases. Those explosive rallies are often concentrated in just a handful of trading sessions, frequently early in a bull cycle and again during later-stage acceleration.

“Bitcoin does nothing most of the time,” he said, noting that gains of 100% within a single quarter are not uncommon — but missing that window can mean missing much of the cycle’s upside.

Check cautioned against attempting to perfectly time market tops and bottoms, as investors often forfeit early gains while waiting for confirmation.

In short, while extended consolidation can be frustrating, history suggests that disciplined positioning — rather than precise timing — has tended to reward patient participants.