Compass Point sees crypto downturn easing, with $60,000 marking bitcoin’s likely bottom

Bitcoin may be approaching a bottom in its current downturn, but analysts at Compass Point caution that a more meaningful decline would likely require a broader bear market in U.S. equities.

“While near-term risks remain tilted to the downside, we believe the crypto bear market is entering its final phase,” Compass Point analysts Ed Engel and Michael Donovan wrote in a report on Monday. “Further downside would likely depend on the emergence of a U.S. equity bear market.”

In their base-case scenario, the analysts expect bitcoin to find firm support between $60,000 and $68,000, a range that has historically attracted long-term buyers. On-chain data shows that roughly 7% of bitcoin held by long-term investors—defined as those holding for six months or more—was acquired within that band. Compass Point’s central estimate places a market bottom near $65,000.

Bitcoin slipped below $81,000 earlier this month and fell as low as $74,532 over the weekend. The analysts said these levels align with the average cost basis for both bitcoin exchange-traded fund investors and the broader market. Since Jan. 15, bitcoin ETFs have recorded approximately $3 billion in net outflows. With more than half of ETF assets now underwater, Compass Point warned that selling pressure could persist, while the $81,000–$83,000 zone may now serve as overhead resistance.

The firm also pointed to a lack of structural support between $70,000 and $80,000, describing the range as an “air pocket.” Less than 1% of long-term holder supply was accumulated in that zone, leaving the market vulnerable to additional downside if prices remain weak.

If bitcoin were to break below the $60,000–$68,000 support range, the next potential downside target would be around $55,000—but only under more extreme conditions. Historically, bear-market bottoms have occurred below the average cost basis of all bitcoin holders, which currently sits near $55,000.

However, the analysts noted that breaking below that level has typically required significant external stress. During the 2022 downturn, bitcoin breached its average cost basis only after the combination of a U.S. equity bear market and several high-profile crypto bankruptcies.