Bitcoin keeps monthly gains intact even as a historic losing streak remains in focus

Bitcoin is showing early signs of regaining strength against gold, with the BTC-to-gold ratio rebounding toward 16 ounces after a sharp drawdown earlier in the cycle.

With just over a week left in March, bitcoin is narrowly on track to avoid a historic losing streak. The asset is up დაახლოებით 2% for the month, holding above $68,000. However, a late-month decline could still push BTC into six consecutive monthly losses—matching its longest stretch of negative closes, last seen between August 2018 and January 2019.

Key support holds

From a technical perspective, the 200-week moving average (200WMA) remains a crucial level. This long-term trend indicator—based on the average closing price over the past 200 weeks—has historically acted as a strong support during bear markets.

In the current cycle, the 200WMA sits near $59,000. Bitcoin briefly dipped to around $60,000 in early February but has since held above that level for nearly two months, reinforcing the importance of this support zone. Notably, the 2022 bear market was the only period where BTC spent an extended time below the 200WMA, from June through December.

Strength vs. gold emerging

Beyond its dollar price, bitcoin is also beginning to show relative strength against Gold. The asset is on track to post its first positive monthly performance against gold in eight months, with the BTC/gold ratio currently hovering near 16 ounces.

Gold, meanwhile, is trading around $4,200 after recently slipping toward $4,000, marking a roughly 5% daily decline. The metal is now down more than 25% from its January all-time high, erasing an estimated $7.5 trillion in market value.

Historically, each market cycle has seen progressively smaller drawdowns in the bitcoin-to-gold ratio from peak to trough. In the current cycle, BTC fell roughly 71% against gold from its December 2024 high. These cycles have typically lasted around 400 days, suggesting the current downturn in the ratio may be nearing exhaustion.

Trend still intact?

If bitcoin continues to hold above its 200-week moving average while strengthening against gold, it would support the view that the broader uptrend remains intact despite recent volatility.