Bitcoin initially plunged when the U.S.–Iran war erupted, but two weeks later it’s outperforming most major assets.

Each escalation in the Iran conflict has grown larger, yet the size of bitcoin’s pullbacks has been shrinking.

Bitcoin was the first major asset to react to the outbreak of war because it was the only liquid market trading when the U.S. and Israel launched their initial strikes on a Saturday a few weeks ago. On that day, bitcoin dropped about 8.5%.

Two weeks later, the picture looks very different. Bitcoin has outperformed a range of traditional assets, including S&P 500, Asian equities, the Korean stock market, and even Gold. Only crude oil and the U.S. dollar have posted stronger gains — both assets that typically benefit directly from geopolitical conflicts.

The shift has revived discussion about bitcoin’s potential role as a safe-haven asset, an idea that faded during the quieter trading period late last year. At the same time, bitcoin appears to be functioning as a rapid shock absorber for global markets: as geopolitical escalations grow more severe, the resulting price drawdowns have become progressively smaller.

The trend is visible in where buyers have stepped in after each sell-off.

On Feb. 28, when the first strikes occurred, bitcoin bottomed around $64,000. On March 2, following Iran’s retaliatory missile attacks on Gulf states, support emerged near $66,000. By March 7, after a week of sustained conflict, the market held around $68,000. The tanker attacks on March 12 saw bitcoin stabilize near $69,400, and after the strike on Kharg Island on Saturday, the low formed around $70,596.

In other words, each successive decline has found buyers at a higher level.

The pattern shows a series of rising lows, increasing by roughly $1,000 to $2,000 after each escalation. At the same time, the $73,000–$74,000 range has remained a stubborn resistance zone, rejecting bitcoin four times in the past two weeks.

Eventually that tightening range will have to break. Either the rising support catches up with resistance and bitcoin pushes above $74,000, or a larger geopolitical escalation disrupts the pattern and triggers a deeper correction.

Relative strength

What stands out most is bitcoin’s performance relative to other markets over the same period.

Oil prices have surged more than 40% since the conflict began. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has declined, gold has swung sharply in both directions, and Asian equities have endured their worst week since the early days of the pandemic in 2020.

That doesn’t necessarily make bitcoin a traditional safe haven. The cryptocurrency still sells off when major headlines hit the market. The difference now is how quickly it recovers — and the fact that each recovery is occurring at progressively higher levels.

The contrast with earlier this year is striking.

In early February, a sudden liquidation cascade erased about $2.5 billion in leveraged crypto positions over a single weekend, sending bitcoin tumbling to $77,000 and wiping roughly $800 billion from the market’s value compared with its October peak.

At the time, the event appeared severe enough to undermine market confidence for months. Instead, it seems to have flushed out weaker positions and reset leverage across the market. Since then, the crypto market has absorbed repeated war-related headlines without triggering a similar wave of forced selling.

The broader macro backdrop also continues to shape sentiment. Donald Trump said late Friday that U.S. forces avoided targeting oil infrastructure on Kharg Island “for reasons of decency,” but warned the decision could change if Iran continued to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran responded by warning that any attack on its energy infrastructure would prompt retaliatory strikes on facilities connected to the United States.

Such an escalation would intensify the supply disruption that the International Energy Agency has already described as the largest in history.

Still, bitcoin’s behavior during the conflict is revealing something about the evolving nature of the asset.

It is neither a pure safe haven nor simply another risk asset. Instead, bitcoin increasingly functions as a 24-hour global liquidity pool — one that absorbs geopolitical shocks faster than traditional markets because it is the only major asset trading when those shocks first occur.