Bitcoin flatlines amid risk-off shift, gold gains while altcoins push higher

Bitcoin and ether were largely unchanged on Friday as weakening U.S. equity futures reinforced a broader risk-off tone across markets, even as selective altcoins posted gains amid thin trading conditions.

Bitcoin hovered around $88,950, little changed on the day, while ether slipped roughly 1% since midnight UTC to trade near $2,920. The muted price action tracked declines in U.S. stock index futures, with Nasdaq 100 futures down about 0.4% and S&P 500 futures lower by roughly 0.25%.

Risk aversion was more pronounced in traditional safe havens. Gold and silver extended their rallies to fresh record highs this week as investors sought protection from macro uncertainty. The cautious mood appears linked to the first trilateral talks involving Ukraine, Russia and the United States, with markets showing limited optimism that negotiations will deliver a near-term breakthrough.

Despite the subdued backdrop, parts of the altcoin market showed relative resilience. LayerZero’s ZRO token surged 12% over the past 24 hours as traders positioned ahead of a major protocol upgrade scheduled for early February. Tron’s TRX and Dash also rose by around 3%, with low liquidity amplifying price moves.

Derivatives positioning

More than $200 million in crypto futures positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours, with long positions accounting for the majority of losses. This trend has persisted throughout the week as drifting prices caught bullish traders offside.

Bitcoin’s 30-day annualized implied volatility index (BVIV) fell back to 40%, reversing a brief spike to 44% earlier in the week. The decline highlights continued appetite for volatility-selling strategies, including covered calls.

Ether was the only top-10 cryptocurrency to record a modest increase in futures open interest during the past 24 hours. By contrast, bitcoin, XRP and solana saw capital exit derivatives markets. Open interest–adjusted cumulative volume delta data showed net buying interest in TRX, ZEC and BCH, while bitcoin and several other assets experienced net selling.

Options markets reflected growing caution around ether. On Deribit, short-dated ETH put options were priced higher relative to comparable BTC puts, indicating more bearish positioning on Ethereum. Block trades showed demand for BTC straddles, which benefit from volatility, alongside ETH put spreads.

Token talk

The “altcoin season” indicator rose to 29 out of 100 from 24 a week earlier, suggesting traders are still probing for opportunities in an otherwise rangebound market. The bitcoin-heavy CoinDesk 20 Index slipped about 0.6% since midnight UTC, while memecoin, DeFi and metaverse sector indexes posted gains.

Liquidity remains a key constraint for altcoins. For example, the 2% market depth for TON sits between roughly $580,000 and $700,000, meaning relatively small orders can move the token’s $3.7 billion market capitalization by 2%. While this increases volatility, it also leaves room for exaggerated upside if broader market sentiment improves due to a thin sell-side order book.

Metaverse tokens continue to lead sector performance this year. The CoinDesk Metaverse Select Index has risen about 50% since Jan. 1, supported by strong gains in Axie Infinity and The Sandbox.