Bitcoin edges down to $70,000 as blockchain data flags a bear market, with the Fed expected to keep rates steady in April: Asia Morning Briefing.

Bitcoin drifts lower as on-chain data signals weakening demand

On-chain metrics indicate fading demand and tightening liquidity, while prediction markets suggest traders do not expect near-term Fed rate cuts.

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of key U.S. stories, market moves, and analysis. For a detailed U.S. update, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

Bitcoin opened the Asian session with bear-market signals, hovering in the mid-$70,000s as global equities struggle for direction.

CryptoQuant’s latest report frames the weakness as structural, not cyclical. Its Bull Score Index sits at zero, and Bitcoin trades far below its October peak. The market is operating with a thinner buyer base, while liquidity tightens.

Glassnode data confirms weak spot volumes and a demand vacuum: selling pressure isn’t being absorbed, reflecting a decline in participation rather than panic.

Institutional flows reinforce the trend. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, net buyers a year ago, are now net sellers, creating a year-over-year demand gap of tens of thousands of BTC. The Coinbase premium has remained negative since October, signaling muted U.S. investor activity. Historically, strong U.S. spot demand has fueled bull runs—currently, that engine is idle.

Liquidity conditions are tightening further. Stablecoin expansion, typically a driver of risk appetite, has stalled, with USDT market cap growth turning negative for the first time since 2023. Longer-term demand growth has also collapsed, showing participation fading, not just leverage. Bitcoin remains below its 365-day moving average, with major support between $60,000 and $70,000.

Macro conditions add pressure. Bitcoin increasingly trades like high-beta software rather than digital gold. Prediction markets see the Fed holding rates in April, with only modest expectations for a June cut, limiting near-term liquidity relief.

Political developments add complexity. President Trump recently said a Fed chair wanting to raise rates “would not have gotten the job,” tempering earlier optimism about central bank independence.

In Asia, markets are defined less by shocks than by absence, with bounces possible but conviction thin.

Market Moves

• BTC: Drifted to the mid-$70,000s, with rebounds fading amid thin spot demand and pressured tech stocks.
• ETH: Hovered above the low $2,000s, struggling for momentum as risk sentiment softened.
• Gold: Rebounded toward $5,000–$5,100 on safe-haven buying amid U.S.–Iran tensions and softer payroll data, while traders reassessed Fed expectations.
• Nikkei 225: Fell about 0.3%, with chip and tech leaders following Wall Street, though broader Japanese equities held up relatively well versus regional peers.