Bitcoin Drops Below $80K as ETF Investors Pour $424M Into the Market

Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have attracted around $424 million in net investments over three trading days, suggesting that institutional buyers are returning to the market. Despite the renewed demand, BTC has struggled to hold above $80,000 as uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision and weakness in technology stocks weigh on prices.

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.75%–4% on Wednesday, although two officials voted in favor of a 25-basis-point increase. Bitcoin initially climbed to $81,788 after the announcement but later retreated to $79,710 during overnight trading.

The decline followed disappointing results from Samsung’s semiconductor business, which contributed to a broader sell-off in technology shares. More than $350 million in leveraged cryptocurrency positions were liquidated over the preceding 24 hours.

Bitcoin was trading near $79,899 at the time of writing, down 1.2% over the past day and 4.4% for October. The monthly performance puts BTC on course for its second consecutive October decline.

Investors are now looking toward November, when U.S. elections, inflation data, employment figures and the next Federal Reserve meeting could shape market expectations.

Bitcoin ETF Inflows Reach $424 Million in Three Sessions

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced a notable recovery in investor demand, recording approximately $424 million in cumulative net inflows across three consecutive sessions.

Data from SoSoValue shows that the funds received $110.3 million on October 26, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for the entire amount. Inflows increased to $176 million on October 27, when all 12 Bitcoin ETF products reported positive daily flows.

On October 28, another $137.3 million entered the funds. BlackRock’s IBIT attracted approximately $136 million, while Bitwise’s BITB received the remaining $1.3 million.

The buying activity followed a sharp withdrawal event on October 22, when investors removed $635.6 million from the funds. It was the largest single-day outflow since June, with IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC each losing more than $200 million.

October’s cumulative ETF flows remained negative by approximately $202 million as of October 26. The subsequent inflows reversed that position, lifting the monthly balance to roughly $110 million.

The 12 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively hold around $104.9 billion in assets, representing approximately 6.4% of Bitcoin’s market value. Their cumulative net inflows have reached $57.6 billion since trading began in January 2024.

IBIT continues to dominate the sector, with approximately $66.1 billion in assets under management.

Fed Rate Decision and Technology Sell-Off Pressure BTC

The Federal Reserve’s latest decision to maintain interest rates exposed a growing divide among policymakers over whether monetary conditions should become tighter.

The central bank voted 10–2 to leave its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.75%–4%. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack were the two dissenting officials, preferring a 25-basis-point increase.

The Fed described economic activity as expanding at a strong pace but maintained that inflation remains above its desired level. It also reiterated that upcoming policy decisions will depend on incoming economic data.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh did not provide a clear signal about the December meeting. He said the central bank should avoid forward guidance outside exceptional circumstances or a crisis. Warsh also dismissed claims that political pressure influenced the decision, which came six days before the U.S. midterm elections.

Market expectations for another rate increase remain elevated. Polymarket traders assigned approximately 77% odds to a 25-basis-point hike in December.

Bitcoin initially moved higher after the announcement, advancing from around $80,860 at 2 p.m. ET to $81,788, a gain of approximately 1.1%.

However, the move did not last. Samsung’s semiconductor division missed earnings expectations, triggering a decline of more than 5% in its shares and adding pressure to technology markets. BTC subsequently slipped to $79,710 by 02:00 UTC.

The move also triggered substantial liquidations, with more than $350 million in leveraged crypto positions wiped out over 24 hours.

November Brings Key Economic Events for Bitcoin Traders

The coming weeks will bring several events that could influence risk appetite and Bitcoin’s price direction.

The September Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation report and third-quarter GDP figures are due on October 29 at 8:30 a.m. ET. Coinbase and Strategy are also scheduled to release earnings after the market closes.

On October 30, Deribit will settle its monthly Bitcoin options contracts. Approximately 135,700 BTC in open contracts, worth around $10.8 billion, are involved in the expiry.

The U.S. midterm elections take place on November 3, followed by the October employment report on November 6. September’s jobs report showed an increase of just 29,000 positions, making the next release particularly important for assessing labor market conditions.

October’s CPI report is scheduled for November 10. The previous reading showed annual inflation of 3.7%.

The Federal Reserve’s next policy announcement is expected on December 9.

Historical performance offers a mixed picture for Bitcoin during November. Binance data shows that BTC delivered positive returns in only three of the past eight November periods.

The cryptocurrency gained 42.8% in November 2020 and 37.2% in November 2024. Both months followed U.S. presidential elections.

By comparison, Bitcoin lost 36.6% in November 2018 and 16.2% in November 2022, both midterm election years. However, the two declines also occurred during broader bear markets, making it difficult to attribute the losses solely to election cycles.

Options market indicators suggest traders are not positioning for an unusually volatile period. Deribit’s DVOL index, which tracks implied Bitcoin volatility over 30 days, stood at 36.5 on Wednesday, below the 37–39 range maintained over the previous two weeks.

BTC Technical Analysis: Can Buyers Defend $79,221?

Bitcoin’s price remains below its 50-day exponential moving average, leaving the short-term outlook vulnerable despite the recent ETF inflows.

BTC was trading near $79,899 on Binance, compared with the 50-day EMA at $80,789. The cryptocurrency has crossed above and below this indicator three times in the past week, reflecting a lack of clear directional momentum.

The October 24 low at $79,221 is the immediate support level traders are watching. A sustained move below this area could expose Bitcoin to further downside.

The broader trend still has some positive technical features. Bitcoin’s 200-day EMA has climbed from approximately $72,300 in late August to $76,476. The 50-day EMA also moved above the 200-day EMA on September 12, producing a bullish crossover for the first time since November 2025.

The main technical levels are:

• $84,898: Resistance near the October 21 high.
• $79,221: Immediate support based on the October 24 low.
• $76,264–$76,476: A lower support zone combining the September 2 low and the 200-day EMA.

Bitcoin needs to reclaim the 50-day EMA around $80,789 to improve its near-term outlook. A move toward $84,898 would provide a stronger indication that buyers are regaining control.

For now, ETF inflows offer a positive demand signal, but they have not been enough to offset macroeconomic uncertainty and selling pressure across technology stocks. The upcoming inflation and employment reports could provide the next major catalyst for BTC as traders assess the likelihood of another Federal Reserve rate increase.