A 10% plunge in Robinhood shares sparks analyst commentary, with crypto trading weakness hitting the bottom line.

Shares of Robinhood tumbled 10% in early trading Wednesday after the company reported fourth-quarter revenue below Wall Street forecasts, as weaker cryptocurrency activity continued to pressure results.

The retail brokerage delivered earnings per share of $0.66, exceeding consensus estimates of $0.63. Revenue, however, totaled $1.28 billion, missing the $1.33 billion analysts had projected.

A sharp decline in digital asset trading was the primary headwind. Crypto revenue fell 38% year over year to $221 million, dragging total transaction-based revenue down to $776 million, also short of expectations. The slowdown followed a late-year pullback across crypto markets.

Net interest revenue came in at $411 million, below forecasts, as softer securities lending activity and lower yields weighed on performance.

Following the results, several brokerages revised their outlooks. JPMorgan cut its price target to $113 from $130 while maintaining a Neutral rating, pointing to the softer quarter and more challenging comparisons in 2025 that could raise the bar for growth in 2026. Even at the reduced level, the new target suggests upside of more than 50% from the recent share price near $76.50.

JPMorgan analysts, led by Kenneth Worthington, noted that although January trading volumes improved from a year earlier, growth trends across key operating metrics are beginning to moderate. The bank lowered its revenue forecasts accordingly.

Compass Point adopted a more constructive stance despite trimming its price target to $127 from $170 and reiterating a Buy rating. Analyst Ed Engel said January key performance indicators showed encouraging momentum across business segments, including crypto volumes that were better than feared.

Still, Engel acknowledged a 9% EBITDA shortfall, citing lower securities lending revenue and declining take rates in crypto and options trading. He highlighted management’s guidance for 18% operating expense growth in 2026, which he expects will fund expansion into crypto products, decentralized finance initiatives, and prediction markets.

While those investments could begin contributing meaningfully in the second half of 2026, Engel cautioned that near-term EBITDA expectations may be reset lower. He also pointed to potential longer-term catalysts, including internalizing prediction markets and possible major IPOs from companies such as SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI.

Engel further noted that Robinhood’s crypto take rate declined three basis points quarter over quarter in the fourth quarter and has slipped an additional five basis points so far in 2026, reflecting a growing contribution from higher-volume traders on the platform.