$27B bitcoin, ether options expiry fuels Boxing Day year-end reset

Crypto markets are heading into a major year-end reset as a large share of bitcoin and ether options on Deribit approach expiry.

The Boxing Day settlement will see about $23.6 billion in bitcoin options and $3.8 billion in ether options expire, representing more than half of Deribit’s total open interest. Each contract corresponds to one BTC or one ETH.

Positioning into the expiry remains decisively bullish. Data from Deribit show a put-call ratio of 0.38, highlighting a strong skew toward call options.

“The max pain level sits around $96,000, and the low put-call ratio shows positioning heavily tilted to the upside,” said Sidrah Fariq, Deribit’s global head of retail sales and business development, in comments shared via Telegram. The max pain price marks the level at which options buyers collectively suffer the largest losses, while sellers — typically institutional traders and market makers — benefit the most.

Options give traders the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an asset at a set price on expiry. Call options express bullish expectations, while put options are typically used to hedge downside risk.

Max pain under scrutiny

As expiry draws closer, the max pain level has become a focal point. Some traders argue that hedging activity by professional desks can pull spot prices toward that level, potentially guiding bitcoin toward $96,000 and ether toward $3,100 by settlement.

Still, the max pain theory remains widely debated, with many market participants skeptical of its influence on actual price action.

Bullish skew meets thin holiday liquidity

The put-call ratio implies there are just 38 puts for every 100 calls outstanding, underscoring how aggressively traders have chased upside exposure throughout the year. Open interest is concentrated in call strikes between $100,000 and $116,000, while the $85,000 put remains the most popular downside hedge.

Large expiries often introduce volatility as traders close positions or roll them into later maturities. Fariq noted that some puts in the $70,000 to $85,000 range are being rolled into January.

“Whether December puts are allowed to expire or extended will help clarify whether downside risk is simply year-end positioning or a broader structural reset,” she said.

Despite the size of the expiry, volatility expectations remain subdued. “The settlement falls on Boxing Day, liquidity is thinner due to the holidays, and while upside exposure dominates, macro uncertainty is limiting directional conviction,” Fariq added.

Deribit’s bitcoin DVOL index — a measure of 30-day implied volatility — is hovering near 45%, down from 63% in late November when bitcoin briefly fell toward $80,000. The decline suggests easing market stress and reduced expectations of sharp price swings tied to the expiry.