While 2026 may bring a crypto winter, Cantor highlights opportunities in institutional investment and on-chain shifts.

Cantor Fitzgerald Expects a Milder, Institution-Driven Crypto Winter in 2026

Cantor Fitzgerald sees early signs of a crypto winter, but predicts it will be less chaotic and increasingly shaped by institutional investors, DeFi, tokenization, and regulatory clarity.

Bitcoin (BTC $88,929.75) could face a prolonged downturn consistent with its four-year cycle. Analyst Brett Knoblauch notes bitcoin is roughly 85 days past its peak, with prices possibly testing Strategy’s (MSTR) breakeven near $75,000. Unlike past declines, mass liquidations are unlikely, as institutions now dominate market activity, creating a gap between token prices and underlying activity in DeFi, tokenized assets, and crypto infrastructure.

Real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, including credit products, U.S. Treasuries, and equities, tripled in value in 2025 to $18.5 billion, with projections exceeding $50 billion in 2026 as more institutions adopt on-chain settlement.

Decentralized exchanges (DEXs), especially for perpetual futures, are gaining share, while regulatory clarity from the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY) supports greater institutional participation.

On-chain prediction markets, including sports betting, have surged, drawing platforms like Robinhood (HOOD), Coinbase (COIN), and Gemini (GEMI).

While risks remain—bitcoin trades just 17% above Strategy’s cost basis and digital asset trust accumulation has slowed—Cantor sees the market building stronger infrastructure and deeper institutional adoption despite cooler prices.