This metric indicates that Bitcoin’s late-November plunge represented the bottom, pointing to potential upside ahead.

Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder Ratio Points to Late-November Bottom and Further Upside

The ratio of short-term holder supply in profit versus supply in loss has historically signaled the end of Bitcoin bear markets.

During Bitcoin’s (BTC) drop to nearly $80,000 in late November, the ratio fell to 0.013, a level that in past cycles — 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022 — coincided with local or definitive market bottoms, according to Glassnode.

Short-term holders, defined as investors who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days, saw their supply in profit fall to about 30,000 BTC, while supply in loss surged to 2.45 million BTC, the highest since the FTX collapse in 2022, when Bitcoin bottomed near $15,000.

Since early 2026, Bitcoin has climbed to around $94,000, gaining more than 7%. Short-term holder supply in loss has dropped to 1.9 million BTC, while supply in profit has rebounded to 850,000 BTC, bringing the ratio to roughly 0.45.

Historically, when this ratio approaches 1, it tends to continue rising alongside a sustained price rally. With the current ratio below 0.5, the metric suggests significant room for further upside, while market tops have generally emerged only when the ratio nears 100.