“The bottom is in”: Tom Lee ties Iran truce to the start of bitcoin’s next bull run

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee believes markets have found a bottom, pointing to the Iran ceasefire as a key turning point—a shift that could lift bitcoin (BTC), ether (ETH), and other risk assets alongside equities.

In a recent CNBC appearance, Lee said the S&P 500 moving above its 200-day moving average at 6,617 would confirm a “decisive move higher.” Futures have already cleared that level, trading around 6,820, suggesting momentum is building.

His argument rests on market resilience during the height of geopolitical stress. Between mid-March and early April, the S&P 500 rose from 6,300 to 6,600 even as oil prices surged from $87 to $116 and tensions intensified. That performance, he argues, shows markets had already absorbed much of the downside risk.

The ceasefire, in Lee’s view, represents a clear inflection point. The immediate reaction was telling: equities rallied 2.5%, oil prices dropped roughly 15%, and volatility fell sharply, with the VIX slipping below 20 in a single session.

But the bullish narrative is already being tested.

Lee’s firm has meaningful exposure to crypto markets, including a recent purchase of over 71,000 ETH, aligning its positioning with a continued rally.

More importantly, cracks in the ceasefire are beginning to emerge. Iranian officials have signaled that parts of the agreement have been breached, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, and oil has rebounded toward $97 after its sharp decline.

If the truce fails, the implications could be swift. A renewed spike in oil would likely reignite inflation concerns, weigh on equities, and pressure crypto markets, potentially dragging prices back toward recent lows.

For now, markets are embracing the idea of a turning point. Whether that optimism holds will depend on whether the ceasefire proves durable—or quickly unravels under renewed geopolitical strain.