Polymarket sees record-breaking trading volume as U.S.–Iran wagers exceed $529 million

A contract centered on military strikes against a sovereign nation is now trading alongside U.S. presidential election wagers as one of the most active markets ever hosted on Polymarket.

In less than 24 hours, the platform transformed escalating tensions in the Middle East into a full-scale trading arena.

After the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran on Saturday, Polymarket was inundated with new contracts. Traders began pricing everything from ceasefire deadlines to the potential collapse of the Iranian regime by June.

The granularity is notable. Participants aren’t merely speculating on whether the conflict will intensify — they’re assigning odds to the specific week it could end, who might succeed Ali Khamenei, and whether U.S. ground troops will enter Iran by March 7.

The largest completed market so far — “Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?” — resolved at 100% after Iranian state television confirmed his death. The contract generated $45 million in volume, ranking among the most heavily traded geopolitical markets of the week. The top account, “Curseaaaaaaa,” earned roughly $757,000 on a “yes” position, while four other traders secured six-figure gains.

For weeks, that market’s implied probability fluctuated between 25% and 50% as tensions simmered. It then surged vertically to 100% once confirmation arrived.

Even larger is the ongoing “US strikes Iran by…?” market, live since December 22. It has accumulated $529 million in total volume, making it one of the biggest individual contracts in Polymarket’s history. Within the platform’s “World” and “Geopolitics” categories, it stands as the largest by a wide margin, and ranks fourth in the broader “Politics” section — trailing only major contracts tied to the 2024 U.S. presidential race.

The February 28 strike date alone drew $89.6 million in trades. Each daily contract spanning February 28 through early March ultimately resolved to “yes,” rewarding traders who pinpointed the precise day of military action. The resolution criteria were tightly defined: qualifying events required U.S. drone, missile, or airstrikes on Iranian territory, excluding cyberattacks, interceptions, or ground maneuvers.

With the strikes confirmed, focus has shifted to what follows.

A ceasefire by March 2 is currently priced at just 4%, rising to 15% by March 6. However, odds jump to 61% by March 31 and 78% by April 30, suggesting bettors expect resolution within weeks rather than months — a view mirrored by bitcoin’s rebound to $68,000 on similar de-escalation assumptions.

The “Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?” market now trades at 54%, a sharp increase from the low-20% range where it lingered for months. In the “Next Supreme Leader of Iran” market, “position abolished” commands a 30% probability, implying a roughly one-in-three chance that the theocratic leadership structure itself is dismantled. Among named figures, former parliament speaker Ali Larijani leads at 21%.

Contracts tied to potential U.S. ground involvement are also attracting liquidity. “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” sits at 19% with $207,000 traded, while “US forces enter Iran by March 7” is priced at 28% with $2 million in volume.

What distinguishes Polymarket is its ability to operate continuously. While equity and oil futures remain closed until Sunday evening, anyone with a crypto wallet can take positions on regime change or military escalation in real time, even over a weekend, with prices reflecting the aggregated views of thousands of participants.

Some of the most eye-catching activity appears to have occurred before the first missiles were launched.

Onchain analytics firm Bubblemaps reported that six wallets collectively generated $1.2 million in profit by betting on a U.S. strike by February 28 — the exact day operations began. Most were funded within 24 hours of the attack, targeted the specific February 28 contract rather than broader timeframes, and accumulated “yes” shares hours before the strikes commenced. The largest wallet reportedly turned about $61,000 into more than $493,000, while another converted a $30,000 stake into roughly $120,000.

Amid scrutiny, Polymarket addressed the optics. On Sunday, it added a note to its Middle East markets stating that prediction markets aim to “harness the wisdom of the crowd” to deliver accurate and unbiased forecasts on major global events. The platform said conversations with individuals directly affected by the attacks reinforced its belief that real-time market pricing can provide clarity in ways traditional media cannot.

It has also launched a dedicated section focused exclusively on Iran-related contracts, underscoring the scale of interest surrounding the unfolding crisis.