Market signals suggest bitcoin could repeat the rally that lifted prices to $126,000 last year.

Bitcoin’s latest stretch of tight, range-bound trading is beginning to resemble the consolidation phase seen in early 2025 that ultimately paved the way for a rally to record highs above $126,000.

The price of BTC has been locked in a choppy back-and-forth for weeks, closely mirroring market behavior from the start of last year. Since Nov. 21, bitcoin has traded between roughly $80,000 and $95,000, approaching its 50th day confined within this nearly 20% range. That duration aligns closely with the late-February to early-April 2025 consolidation, when prices oscillated between $76,000 and $85,000.

That earlier phase lasted 52 days before breaking higher, eventually driving bitcoin to a peak above $126,000 in October. Traders often describe such prolonged, uneventful price action as “time-based capitulation,” a process in which impatience forces weaker holders to exit the market.

As bitcoin has matured, these time-based capitulations have increasingly replaced the steep drawdowns that characterized earlier cycles. The broader uptrend that began in 2023 has taken on a stair-step structure, defined by sharp advances, orderly pullbacks and extended periods of consolidation before the next leg higher.

Looking ahead, macroeconomic conditions could again provide a supportive backdrop. In traditional markets, the economic re-acceleration trade has gained traction, supported by the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate showing real GDP growth tracking at 5.4% for the fourth quarter. While the Federal Reserve may pause in the near term, markets continue to price in roughly 50 basis points of rate cuts in 2026.

Liquidity expectations have also been bolstered by recent political developments. President Donald Trump said Thursday that he is urging the purchase of up to $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities, reinforcing expectations for continued liquidity support. Former Pimco CEO Mohamed El-Erian noted that political pressure on the Federal Reserve could extend beyond interest-rate cuts to include asset purchases aimed directly at improving housing affordability.

Trump’s comments, El-Erian added, highlight growing public anxiety around affordability, a dynamic that could ultimately trigger a more forceful policy response.

Taken together, the similarities in price structure and a potentially supportive macro backdrop suggest bitcoin’s current consolidation may once again resolve to the upside, echoing the breakout that followed a similar range in April last year.