Maelstrom, under Arthur Hayes, heads into 2026 with altcoin bets at ‘almost maximum risk.’

Arthur Hayes’ Maelstrom Starts 2026 at “Near Maximum Risk,” Betting Big on Altcoins and Privacy Tokens

Arthur Hayes’ investment fund, Maelstrom, is entering 2026 with what Hayes calls “almost maximum risk” exposure, continuing the aggressive approach it adopted in the latter half of 2025 while keeping stablecoin holdings minimal.

In a recent essay, Hayes said the fund remains heavily invested in risk assets, with a refined focus on privacy coins such as Zcash (ZEC) and emerging DeFi tokens, which now make up the bulk of the portfolio. “While spare cash from financing trades will continue to flow into Bitcoin, our dollar stablecoin position is very low,” he noted.

This marks a reversal from Maelstrom’s early-2025 positioning, when Hayes forecasted Bitcoin could drop to $70,000 amid a “mini financial crisis” before quantitative easing resumed. After reducing risk and raising fiat early last year, the fund returned to aggressive exposure by April, going “maximum long” as Bitcoin briefly fell below $85,000 amid tariff-related volatility.

Through the summer, Maelstrom positioned for a new altcoin cycle, a strategy that carried through year-end as the fund added privacy coins trading at perceived bargain prices. By December, anticipating rate cuts and Fed liquidity expansion, Hayes said it was “time to go shopping,” actively increasing risk allocations.

Hayes, widely regarded as a top crypto macro strategist, expects rising U.S. GDP, federal deficit spending, and continued Fed money printing to support crypto broadly, with higher-risk tokens likely to benefit most. Geopolitical factors, such as U.S. involvement in Venezuela, also underpin his macro thesis.

Reflecting on 2025, Hayes said Maelstrom’s performance was profitable but uneven, with strong gains from Bitcoin, HYPE, and PENDLE offset by losses in tokens like PUMP. Moving forward, the fund plans to focus on high-conviction narratives aligned with the broader liquidity environment.

The strategy coincides with Maelstrom’s strategic investment in River, a chain abstraction and stablecoin startup, though financial terms were not disclosed.