Fresh data shows bitcoin’s push beyond $80,000 came without strong participation from U.S. spot investors.

Bitcoin’s climb above $80,000 appears to have been driven largely by leveraged bets rather than sustained spot demand, raising concerns about the strength of the move.

Data suggests that U.S.-based investors—typically central to longer-lasting rallies—have not been active participants. This is evident in the Coinbase Premium, which has remained negative since late April, according to CryptoQuant. The metric compares bitcoin prices on Coinbase with those on offshore exchanges.

A negative premium indicates that overseas traders are paying more for bitcoin than U.S. buyers, signaling that the rally has been led by offshore demand. Under stronger market conditions, a positive premium عادة reflects robust institutional inflows via Coinbase.

Even so, bitcoin managed to gain around 5%, briefly rising above $82,000 before slipping back below $80,000 after stronger-than-expected U.S. producer price data. The asset was last trading near $79,500.

Crucially, the entire rally unfolded while the Coinbase Premium remained in negative territory—a shift first observed on April 29, when a surge in realized losses suggested that underwater holders were selling into the price strength.

Additional on-chain data points to subdued spot demand. CryptoQuant’s apparent demand metric has improved sharply—from -91,000 BTC in April to around -11,000 BTC—but remains slightly negative, indicating that supply still marginally outweighs demand.

Instead, much of the recent market activity has been concentrated in perpetual futures. These leveraged instruments allow traders to take directional positions without expiry, but they also introduce instability, as positions can unwind rapidly during shifts in funding rates or liquidation events.

As a result, rallies driven by derivatives tend to be less durable than those supported by steady spot buying. That fragility is beginning to show, with bitcoin slipping back below the $80,000 level over the past day.

CryptoQuant analysts characterize the current move as a relief bounce rather than the start of a new accumulation phase. They draw comparisons to March 2022, when bitcoin rallied 43% before stalling at its 200-day moving average and resuming its downtrend. The current advance stands at roughly 37% from April lows, with unrealized profits reaching similar levels.

Looking ahead, the $70,000 level is seen as a key support zone. This aligns with the Traders’ On-chain Realized Price—the average cost basis for short-term holders—and represents a point where profit margins compress, potentially easing selling pressure and stabilizing the market.