Bitcoin’s long-term conviction cohort has expanded by 300%, while most recent purchasers are holding profits.

Bitcoin supply held by so-called “conviction buyers” has swelled to nearly 4 million BTC, marking a roughly 300% increase since late 2025 and highlighting a profound shift in ownership dynamics.

Data from BitGo, referenced in a Bitfinex report, indicates that an increasing share of bitcoin is being absorbed by long-term holders—entities that rarely transact and typically accumulate through market cycles. This shift reflects a growing concentration of the asset’s realized value in stronger hands.

At current prices around $80,000, these holdings are worth more than $320 billion.

“Even without full clarity on how BitGo defines ‘conviction buyers,’ the signal is hard to ignore,” said Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics. “Historically, when liquid supply tightens while demand builds, bitcoin has entered its most aggressive growth phases.”

Bitfinex noted that this represents the most significant two-quarter rise in conviction-driven accumulation since the recovery following the 2020 COVID-19 crash. The cohort spans both institutional investors and long-term individual holders.

Crucially, these holdings are separate from the estimated 5.6 million BTC that has remained untouched for over a decade, according to developer Jameson Lopp. With total circulating supply at roughly 20.03 million BTC, a growing portion is effectively locked away from active trading.

Analysts also pointed to a broader trend: more bitcoin is leaving exchanges and moving into wallets associated with low-activity entities. This migration is steadily reducing the pool of liquid supply available to the market.

Institutional demand and corporate treasury strategies are playing a central role in this transition. Strategy (MSTR), the largest publicly traded corporate holder of bitcoin, recently expanded its holdings to 818,869 BTC—acquired for nearly $62 billion—and is currently sitting on approximately $4.6 billion in unrealized gains.

As supply continues to concentrate in these long-term holders, market liquidity tightens, increasing the likelihood of a supply shock if demand accelerates.

Additional data from CEX.IO reinforces the idea of a strengthening market base. Nearly 70% of recently acquired bitcoin is now in profit, a condition that typically reduces the probability of panic selling during short-term corrections.

CEX.IO analysts suggest that as more investors remain in profit, selling pressure during dips diminishes, helping stabilize price action.

“Those who understand bitcoin’s long-term value tend to accumulate rather than sell, especially now that borrowing against BTC is becoming more accessible,” said Ran Hammer, vice president of business development at Orbs. “That fundamentally changes the supply equation.”

Connor Howe, CEO and co-founder of Enso, said the asset’s scarcity narrative is increasingly being validated by real market behavior.

“With ETF inflows and institutional participation becoming structural, not speculative, more supply is shifting into conviction hands,” Howe said. “That could make future supply constraints much more visible as demand strengthens.”