Critical bitcoin levels come into focus amid rising downside risk

Bitcoin remains in a downtrend, with a cluster of technical and onchain levels now in focus as potential support.

The price dipped to around $86,000 when CME futures reopened on Sunday following the weekend pause, before recovering modestly. Despite the bounce, broader market structure continues to point lower.

That initial move created a CME gap extending to roughly $89,265. Such gaps form when bitcoin’s spot price moves while CME futures are closed and have historically tended to be revisited by price action.

Bitcoin last set an all-time high on Oct. 6, around 111 days ago, and has since declined by roughly 30%, reinforcing bearish momentum.

A decisive break below $80,000 would likely open the door to a retest of April 2025 lows near $76,000, seen during the selloff tied to President Donald Trump’s tariff drive.

For now, the key level underpinning the market is the 100-week moving average, a widely watched long-term support that reflects the average closing price over that period. Since the Nov. 21 low near $80,000, bitcoin has consistently held above this level, which currently sits around $87,145.

Bitcoin has already slipped below its 50-day moving average, just above $90,000, a common gauge of short-term trend direction.

Below current prices, several additional support zones come into view. The Difficulty Regression Model, which estimates bitcoin’s average production cost based on mining difficulty, sits near $89,300. In bear markets, prices often gravitate toward or trade below production cost.

Further down, the aggregate cost basis of U.S. spot bitcoin ETF buyers stands at $84,099, a level that has provided support in recent months. Onchain data also place the 2024 average exchange withdrawal price — effectively the cost basis of 2024 buyers — at $82,713.

Finally, the True Market Mean Price, calculated as Investor Cap divided by Active Supply, sits just above $80,000, aligning closely with the November low and reinforcing its significance as a potential mean-reversion level.