Bitcoin/Silver Ratio Falls Back to FTX Crash Territory

Sharp price swings, historical timing signals and relative-value measures are increasingly raising questions over whether silver is approaching a blow-off top.

In late-stage bull markets, investors are often drawn to the challenge of calling the peak. That impulse is frequently reinforced by references to high-profile contrarian successes, such as Michael Burry’s prescient warning ahead of the 2007 housing downturn. As rallies accelerate and volatility expands, this behavior tends to intensify — a dynamic now evident in silver’s recent price action.

Bitcoin–Silver Ratio

The bitcoin-to-silver ratio is currently near 780, below its 2017 high when bitcoin surged to $20,000 and close to levels seen in November 2022, when bitcoin bottomed near $15,500 and the ratio dipped to around 700. This convergence suggests silver may be losing relative strength against bitcoin.

Silver has climbed nearly 300% over the past year, but recent trading has been marked by abrupt reversals. On Monday, prices dropped almost 15% after posting a comparable gain earlier in the session, briefly reaching highs near $117 per ounce before retreating toward $112 — a move that highlights the market’s elevated volatility.

History adds another layer of caution. Silver’s local tops have frequently occurred early in the calendar year, with many clustering in the first half. Past peaks include February 1974; January 1980, which marked a classic blow-off top near $47; February 1983; May 1987; February 1998; April 2004; May 2006; March 2008; and April 2011, when prices again topped near $50 during a blow-off phase.

Taken together, these factors form a warning signal. If historical patterns continue to hold, silver’s recent behavior may indicate the market is nearing a cyclical peak — or entering the final stages of an overheated rally.