Bitcoin price forecast: Citigroup’s base case sits at $143,000

Citigroup has released a 12-month outlook for bitcoin, setting a “base case” price target of $143,000—roughly 62% above current levels near $88,000—supported by expected ETF inflows and ongoing strength in traditional equity markets.

“Bitcoin is likely to trade between $80,000 and $90,000 into the new year, underpinned by growing adoption and potential U.S. digital-asset legislation in the second quarter,” analysts Alex Saunders, Dirk Willer, and Vinh Vo wrote in a joint report. They highlighted $70,000 as a key support level, roughly the price bitcoin held ahead of Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory.

The base case scenario relies on revived ETF demand and favorable equity market forecasts. Regulatory catalysts—especially the anticipated passage and signing of the Clarity Act, which has already cleared the House—could further drive adoption and capital inflows.

Citi also outlined a bear case at $78,500, more than 10% below current levels, if a global recession occurs. The bull case envisions bitcoin climbing to $189,000, more than doubling from today’s levels, fueled by strong end-investor demand.

The report underscores that while bitcoin remains volatile, key drivers such as regulation, ETF inflows, and equity market performance could provide significant upside over the next year.