Bitcoin optimism reverses as Fidelity executive cautions against year-long crypto slump

Fidelity’s global macro director, Jurien Timmer, says the latest bitcoin bull market has likely come to an end, while pointing to gold’s ongoing strength as evidence of a broader divergence between the two assets.

A long-time bitcoin advocate, Timmer has turned more cautious, arguing that the cryptocurrency appears to be following its familiar four-year cycle once again. From both historical comparisons and time-based analysis, he believes the current phase closely resembles previous market cycles.

Bitcoin’s October peak near $125,000 — reached after roughly 145 months of cumulative gains — fits squarely within that pattern, Timmer said. He noted that bitcoin bear markets, often referred to as crypto winters, have typically lasted around a year, leading him to view 2026 as a potential pause following the most recent halving-driven advance.

“While I remain a secular bull on bitcoin, my concern is that bitcoin may well have ended another four-year halving phase, both in price and time,” Timmer wrote on X. “If we visually line up all the bull markets, we can see that the October high of $125,000 after 145 months of rallying fits pretty well with what one might expect. Bitcoin winters have lasted about a year, so my sense is that 2026 could be a year off for bitcoin. Support is at $65,000 to $75,000.”

Timmer contrasted bitcoin’s recent softness with gold’s robust performance in 2025 and said he does not expect a near-term mean reversion between the two markets.

Gold remains firmly in a bull market, up roughly 65% year to date and outperforming growth in the global money supply, Timmer noted. He added that gold has held on to most of its gains during recent pullbacks — behavior he views as characteristic of a sustained bull trend.