Bitcoin is seen as “deeply undervalued,” yet the bear market persists with no clear catalyst to drive gains.

Market participants say bitcoin’s next sustained advance is unlikely to begin until selling pressure from long-term holders fades and meaningful institutional capital starts to flow into the market.

After a turbulent stretch in October and November 2025, bitcoin BTC $90,647.21 has entered a period of relative calm, trading largely between $85,000 and $90,000 for several weeks. Several analysts believe that consolidation could persist in the near term.

“There are developments that could eventually push prices higher,” said Gerry O’Shea, head of global market insights at Hashdex, citing potential shifts in U.S. monetary policy and progress on crypto legislation in Congress. “But for now, the market lacks a clear directional driver.”

Jim Ferraioli, director of crypto research and strategy at Schwab’s Center for Financial Research, described the current environment as a natural cooling-off phase after a powerful rally. While Schwab does not publish price targets, Ferraioli said he expects 2026 to be constructive for bitcoin, even if near-term trading remains subdued. “By crypto standards, this could be a fairly dull year,” he said.

From the November 2022 lows to the intraday peak near $126,000 reached last October, bitcoin posted roughly eightfold gains over three years, Ferraioli noted. “The market is still working through the implications of that move.”

Since the October high, on-chain activity has softened, while exchange-traded fund flows have emerged as the dominant influence on price. “Transaction fees were compressed, long-term holders were distributing, and exchange balances fell to cycle lows,” Ferraioli said. “ETF demand became the key driver.”

While ETFs have broadened access to bitcoin, Ferraioli warned that they may also be distorting short-term signals. “Large institutional investors remain mostly on the sidelines,” he said. “Regulatory clarity could become the catalyst for more durable inflows.”

Hyunsu Jung, CEO of Hyperion DeFi, said bitcoin’s narrative has faded as digital assets have taken a back seat to other asset classes, particularly as ETF inflows that surged earlier in the year have cooled. Without a macroeconomic shift or renewed institutional demand, he expects continued sideways trading.

Will Reeves, CEO of fintech firm Fold, said bitcoin is waiting for a reset in supply and demand. “It’s deeply undervalued,” Reeves said. “The market needs persistent sellers to capitulate and a broader base of buyers to emerge.”

Whether the current phase amounts to a new crypto winter remains debated. “By traditional definitions, bitcoin is in a bear market,” Ferraioli said. “But given its inherent volatility, a 30% drawdown is hardly unusual.”

Despite periodic correlations with equities, Ferraioli said bitcoin ultimately moves on its own fundamentals. “Money supply, declining issuance growth, and adoption matter most,” he said. “Adoption is the big unknown this year.”