Bitcoin climbs toward $70,000 as spot ETFs attract $1.45B in inflows over five days.

Bitcoin’s recovery toward the $70,000 mark appears to be driven more by positioning adjustments than renewed bullish conviction, according to market maker Enflux. The firm said the recent move higher largely reflects traders covering short positions after leaning bearish during the latest geopolitical headlines.

Bitcoin was trading around $68,000 as trading reached midday in Hong Kong, rebounding from a weekend slide that briefly pushed the price toward $63,000. According to Enflux, the bounce began once fears of an immediate escalation into a wider regional conflict failed to materialize.

“The market is not pricing catastrophe, but it is not pricing resolution either,” Enflux said in a note. The firm explained that many traders added short positions as tensions involving Iran intensified over the weekend. When the situation did not rapidly expand into a broader regional war threatening Gulf shipping and key trade routes such as those around Dubai, short sellers began closing positions, fueling the rebound.

The firm added that crypto markets often react more quickly than traditional assets during geopolitical shocks.

“When bombs drop or sanctions tighten, capital looks for exit routes. In times of uncertainty, bitcoin can act as a pressure valve,” the note said.

Institutional demand has also provided support for prices. Over the past five trading sessions, spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds have recorded about $1.45 billion in net inflows, helping stabilize the market following several months of weakness.

Data from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode suggests conditions are improving but that conviction among traders remains limited. Momentum indicators have begun to recover from recent lows, with bitcoin’s relative strength index rising to around 41 from roughly 36 a week earlier. However, the indicator remains below the neutral 50 level that typically signals stronger bullish momentum.

Spot market activity has strengthened as well. Trading volumes have climbed to about $9.6 billion from $6.6 billion the previous week, while buy and sell flows in spot markets are becoming more balanced. This shift suggests the earlier wave of aggressive selling pressure is starting to ease.

Derivatives markets, however, continue to reflect caution. Glassnode noted that the cost of holding leveraged long positions has fallen sharply, and futures data still shows sellers outnumbering buyers, indicating that many leveraged traders remain hesitant to bet aggressively on further gains.

Prediction markets echo that uncertainty. On Polymarket, the probability of bitcoin falling to $65,000 during March has dropped 11 percentage points to 73%, while the odds of a decline to $60,000 have fallen 10 points to 41%. A separate contract tracking whether bitcoin reaches $60,000 before $80,000 has also weakened, sliding 12 points to 61%.

Taken together, the data suggests bitcoin has stabilized after its recent decline, supported by institutional inflows and improving spot demand. Still, traders remain cautious, reluctant to price in either a decisive rally or a deeper downturn while geopolitical risks and macro uncertainty persist.