“After the Summer Is Better”: Analyst Sees Delayed Crypto Upside

Bitcoin’s growing divergence from tech stocks is raising concerns as AI-related investment continues to surge, according to Quinn Thompson.

Quinn Thompson, CIO at Lekker Capital, says Bitcoin is still flashing warning signs, with his fund maintaining a bearish stance on crypto heading into the summer.

He attributes the weakness to a mix of structural pressures, including ongoing issues in digital asset treasury (DAT) strategies, uncertainty around Strategy’s STRC preferred stock, and continued concerns that future quantum computing advances could undermine Bitcoin’s security framework.

Together with softer liquidity conditions and sustained selling pressure, these factors have contributed to one of the widest gaps between Bitcoin and technology equities in recent history, with crypto underperforming even as tech remains broadly resilient.

Thompson also cautions that a wave of large-scale IPOs—including SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI—could absorb significant amounts of global capital, potentially tightening liquidity across risk assets.

He highlights the underperformance of the Magnificent Seven relative to the broader Nasdaq as a key warning sign. In healthy bull markets, leadership is typically concentrated in the largest companies, but recent gains have instead been driven by semiconductor and AI supply-chain names rather than the hyperscalers that initially led the rally.

According to Thompson, these hyperscalers are under increasing pressure as heavy AI-related capital expenditure weighs on free cash flow, drives higher leverage, and limits share buyback activity.

At the same time, cutting spending could weaken the semiconductor and AI infrastructure trade that has supported much of the broader tech sector.

He concludes that rising IPO supply will increasingly compete for investor capital and attention, creating a challenging outlook for both AI leaders and the broader market.