Unitree Goes Public as Hyperliquid Bets Point to 4x IPO Upside

• Hyperliquid traders are betting on a nearly $38 billion valuation for Unitree, far above the robotics company’s roughly $9 billion IPO valuation, leaving leveraged positions exposed to heavy liquidations, Allium analysts said.
• Crypto traders are positioning for Unitree Robotics to command more than four times its IPO valuation once the Chinese robot maker begins trading publicly.
• Unitree priced its Shanghai STAR Market shares at 150.80 yuan ($22.37) each, giving the company an IPO valuation of about $9 billion. Its pre-IPO perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid, however, traded around $92-$94 on Friday, implying a valuation close to $38 billion, according to blockchain analytics firm Allium.
• The substantial premium highlights bullish expectations surrounding Unitree, a major Chinese robotics company. Founded in Hangzhou in 2016, Unitree produces quadruped and humanoid robots for research, industrial and consumer uses. Its revenue jumped 335% to $253 million last year, while humanoid robot shipments surpassed 5,500 units, Allium reported.
• Unitree’s IPO reportedly received retail demand nearly 8,000 times the amount of shares offered. Trading is expected to begin between Aug. 17 and Aug. 21.
• The debut is also drawing attention to the rapid growth of pre-IPO perpetual contracts in the crypto derivatives market.
• Hyperliquid has become a prominent onchain venue for perpetual futures, enabling traders to take leveraged long and short positions without an expiry date. The platform has expanded the model beyond cryptocurrencies into commodities such as oil and gold, as well as private companies preparing to list publicly.
• Pre-IPO perpetuals do not give traders ownership of the underlying businesses and cannot be converted into company shares. Instead, they provide a synthetic market where traders can speculate on valuations before a stock has an established public price. Once the shares begin trading, the perp price is generally expected to move toward the underlying stock’s market value.
• Recent IPOs have shown that pre-IPO perps can provide useful signals ahead of public-market launches.
• Allium noted that a pre-IPO contract tracking Chinese memory-chip producer CXMT came within 2.5% of its Shanghai opening price when the stock began trading in July.
• Hyperliquid traders also correctly anticipated in June that Elon Musk’s SpaceX would debut above its $135 IPO price.

Unitree debut could trigger major liquidations

• Unitree’s pre-IPO contracts have already generated significant activity. The two Hyperliquid markets operated by Trade.xyz and Paragon have combined open interest of $9.1 million and approximately $59 million in trading volume, according to Allium.
• The contracts traded an average of just 1.6% apart when both markets were active. Their latest prices near $92-$94 imply more than 300% upside compared with Unitree’s IPO price.
• Such a wide premium also creates substantial risks for leveraged traders. Even a strong IPO debut could leave bullish traders facing large losses if the stock opens well below the perp price.
• Allium estimates that Unitree could open at twice its IPO price and still trigger liquidations across roughly one-third of long positions.
• If the stock opens at about $45, for example, it would be twice the IPO price but still around 52% below the current perp level, potentially liquidating about 33% of long exposure. A debut around $128, nearly six times the IPO price, could instead liquidate an estimated 53% of short positions. An opening near the current perp price would leave both sides largely unaffected.
• Trade.xyz, the larger of the two markets, currently has nearly balanced positioning, with about $6.5 million in longs and $6.6 million in shorts.
• Smaller traders are showing a stronger bearish bias, with positions below $50,000 being roughly 70% short by value.
• Allium said Unitree’s opening price will determine which side faces the greatest pressure, as a significant gap from the current perp price could force one group of traders into liquidation.