These metrics imply that Bitcoin’s $60,000 plunge in February may have represented the market low.

Bitcoin’s realized cap stabilization, elevated RHODL ratio, and extended negative funding rates are increasingly being viewed as signals that a cycle bottom may have formed earlier this year.

For Bitcoin (BTC) investors, the central question is whether the market already set its low in early February, when prices briefly dropped toward $60,000 during a sharp correction. While no single indicator can definitively confirm a bottom, a combination of on-chain and derivatives metrics suggests the worst of the selloff may already be over, especially with BTC now trading back above $77,000.

A key indicator is Realized Cap, which values Bitcoin based on the price at which each coin last moved on-chain. Unlike market capitalization, which reflects the current spot price, Realized Cap represents the aggregate cost basis of holders and is widely used to assess capital inflows and outflows across the network.

Realized Cap peaked near $1.12 trillion before declining to around $1.08 trillion as Bitcoin fell more than 50% from its October all-time high. The drop marked one of the largest wealth drawdowns in Bitcoin’s history. However, the metric has since stabilized, suggesting early signs of base formation similar to previous major cycle lows, including the 2022 bear market.

Another supportive signal is the RHODL Ratio, which compares wealth held by long-term holders (six months to two years) against newer participants (one day to three months). The ratio currently sits above 5, its third-highest level on record. Historically, only the 2015 and 2022 cycle bottoms produced higher readings, indicating long-term holders continue to dominate supply. Since February, this cohort has accumulated more than 400,000 BTC.

Derivatives data further supports the case. Perpetual futures funding rates—the payments exchanged between long and short traders to keep futures prices aligned with spot—remained deeply negative for an extended period between February and May. Sustained negative funding typically reflects extreme bearish sentiment and overcrowded short positioning, conditions that often appear near market bottoms as selling pressure becomes exhausted.

Similar setups have previously been observed during major macro stress events, including the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March 2023, the yen carry trade unwind in August 2024, and the tariff-driven selloff in April 2025—all of which ultimately aligned with significant Bitcoin lows and subsequent recoveries.