Strategy Discount Deepens as Valuation Trails Bitcoin Assets

For years, the company traded at a premium to the value of its bitcoin holdings, giving it strong flexibility to raise capital — an advantage that Michael Saylor and his team repeatedly leveraged.

That trend has now reversed, with Strategy’s (MSTR) enterprise multiple to net asset value (mNAV) dropping below 1.

This marks a significant shift for the firm, which was long valued well above its bitcoin reserves. That premium once made fundraising easier, but the edge has now disappeared.

With the stock hovering around $82 — nearly 85% below its November 2024 peak — enterprise value has declined to roughly $50.4 billion. Meanwhile, its bitcoin holdings are valued at about $51.1 billion at a $60,000 BTC price. In effect, the market is pricing the company below the value of its bitcoin assets. At this point, issuing new shares becomes dilutive, as equity would be sold beneath the underlying asset value.

Enterprise mNAV is calculated by dividing total enterprise value — including market capitalization, debt, and preferred equity, minus USD reserves — by the firm’s bitcoin holdings.

Although the company can still raise capital through share issuance, doing so now may attract criticism. Recent bitcoin purchases have already diluted existing shareholders, sparking investor concerns.

There is also a growing perception that Strategy is being valued more like a closed-end fund than an operating business. Similar vehicles have historically traded at premiums during strong demand, only to slip into persistent discounts as sentiment weakens, often due to limited redemption mechanisms.

Even so, Strategy maintains more flexibility than traditional closed-end funds. It can issue debt or equity when conditions are favorable, refinance liabilities, generate cash flow from its core software operations, and actively manage its capital structure.