BTC Climbs Back From $58K, Yet Market Structure Suggests More Pain Ahead

Bitcoin briefly fell to its lowest level since September 2024 before bouncing back toward $59,770, while ether extended its decline and another $1 billion in futures positions were liquidated across crypto markets.

The broader market remains stuck around a key support zone, with bitcoin (BTC) showing limited movement since midnight UTC after rebounding from Thursday’s drop to its weakest level since September 2024.

BTC last traded near $59,700 after briefly sliding to $58,100.

Ether (ETH) failed to mirror bitcoin’s recovery, slipping another 1% and extending its losing streak to three consecutive sessions, recently trading near $1,550.

U.S. equity futures also pointed to softer sentiment, with Nasdaq 100 futures down 1% and S&P 500 futures off 0.4%, as the recent tech-led rally continues to unwind.

A standout in an otherwise weak market was Aave (AAVE), which surged as much as 6.8% since midnight, extending gains after reports that Kraken may be exploring a 15% stake in the DeFi protocol.

Derivatives positioning

Volatility continues to pressure leveraged traders, with another $1 billion in liquidations over the past 24 hours. Long positions accounted for most of the wipeout, while ETH saw more forced liquidations than BTC over the last 12 hours.

Bitcoin futures open interest rose for a second straight session to around 778,000 BTC, up from recent lows near 730,000 BTC. The increase during Thursday’s selloff suggests traders were adding short positions into weakness, positioning for further downside.

Ether futures remain comparatively stable, with open interest holding near 14 million ETH since mid-June, suggesting traders are not aggressively building bearish exposure. XRP shows a similar pattern.

Solana open interest has eased from record highs but remains elevated, keeping volatility risks in play.

Across major tokens, OI-adjusted 24-hour cumulative volume delta remains negative, signaling sustained seller dominance. The pattern reflects heavier use of market sells versus passive bids, with exceptions in BNB, SOL, and TON.

Implied volatility is also rising. Bitcoin’s BVIV climbed to 53%, its highest since early June, while ETH volatility reached 66%. Traditional markets remain steadier, with the VIX at 20% and the MOVE index showing limited stress.

Options markets continue to lean defensive. On Deribit, the one-week BTC skew has moved toward 30%, indicating a strong premium for puts over calls. Large flows included demand for $53,000 puts expiring July 10, alongside ether risk reversals.

Token talk

Aave outperformed the broader market, while Solana gained about 2% since midnight to around $68.95 after rebounding from Thursday’s low of $64.05.

AI tokens remained under pressure, with RENDER, NEAR, FET, and TAO each down 1%–1.5%, extending recent weakness.

Hyperliquid (HYPE) fell 2.6% and is now down 18.5% from its recent peak just 12 days ago.

Ethena (ENA) was again among the weakest performers, dropping another 5% and extending its monthly decline to 34%, as its yield model continues to struggle with negative funding conditions.