Precious metals surge—gold close to $5,000, silver near $100—while bitcoin remains flat

Gold and silver extended their January rally on Thursday, approaching key price milestones, while bitcoin (BTC $88,558) remained largely range-bound near $90,000.

Spot gold rose about 2.5% to $4,950 per ounce, and silver jumped more than 6% to just under $99. The gains cap a strong month for precious metals, with gold up over 7% and silver surging nearly 30%, outperforming most major asset classes.

Prediction markets suggest traders view these levels as stepping stones rather than ceilings. On Polymarket, contracts assessing whether gold or ethereum will hit $5,000 first assign gold a 97% probability, with ETH still under $3,000. Month-end markets also favor gold finishing at or above $5,000 and silver surpassing $85, with significant bets on silver reaching $100.

Analysts are increasingly bullish. Goldman Sachs recently raised its year-end 2026 gold forecast to $5,400 per ounce, up from $4,900. Polymarket traders largely expect bitcoin to remain near $85,000 through January.

Volatility trends illustrate the divergence: silver’s 30-day realized volatility has surged into the high 60s, reflecting strong momentum, while gold’s volatility remains in the low 20s, signaling orderly gains. Bitcoin’s volatility sits in the mid-30s despite prices near recent highs, highlighting a shift in where markets are expressing macro uncertainty.