Oil Falls to Pre-War Levels as Traders Brace for Fed Signals

Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio has declined to levels historically associated with cycle bottoms since 2015, though past cycles suggest this phase typically precedes consolidation rather than an immediate rebound.

At the same time, all seven “Magnificent 7” stocks are under pressure, with the MAGS ETF down करीब 9% from its May highs.

Two key dynamics are driving the pullback. First, investors are rotating out of mega-cap tech into stronger-performing areas such as semiconductors and memory stocks. Second, the heavy capital expenditure required to scale AI infrastructure is weighing on valuations, as companies rely on cash flow, debt, and equity to fund expansion. Markets are increasingly focused on when these investments will begin delivering earnings, and until visibility improves, downside pressure may persist.

Seasonality is also a factor. Mid-June has historically been a weak period for Bitcoin, often marking local bottoms. The asset is currently trading near $65,000, not far above its recent move below $60,000 earlier this month.

Historical comparisons reinforce this pattern:

• June 2021: Bitcoin fell roughly 50% amid China’s mining crackdown.
• June 2022: Prices dropped to around $17,000 following major crypto failures.
• June 2023: Bitcoin traded below $25,000 after retracing spring gains.
• June 2024: The asset consolidated around $65,000.
• June 2025: Bitcoin hovered near $100,000 before rallying in July.

Markets are now firmly focused on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision, with rates expected to remain unchanged. Risk assets are mixed—equities are marginally higher, gold is flat, Bitcoin has slipped below $65,000, and the U.S. dollar is holding just under 100.

Oil prices have eased back to around $76 per barrel as geopolitical tensions subside, returning to pre-conflict levels and potentially easing inflation pressures.

Despite near-term caution, some investors remain constructive. SkyBridge Capital CEO Anthony Scaramucci sees the current muted sentiment as a bullish setup, suggesting Bitcoin could enter a new uptrend by late 2026. Weak sentiment, subdued RSI levels, and thin liquidity could amplify upside if demand returns.

On-chain signals also hint at a potential inflection point. The RHODL Ratio is rolling over from elevated levels—a pattern observed near prior cycle lows—suggesting long-term holders may be regaining dominance.

Crypto markets have softened slightly ahead of the Fed decision, with Bitcoin edging lower during European hours, likely reflecting consolidation rather than a structural reversal.

Traditional markets, however, remain resilient, with equities and bonds trending higher.

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates in the 3.50%–3.75% range, shifting attention toward forward guidance. A dovish tone could support crypto markets, while a more hawkish stance may extend the current pullback.

Bitcoin ETFs are beginning to stabilize after a period of outflows, with modest inflows returning and BlackRock’s IBIT leading demand.

Meanwhile, Binance order book data shows a growing bid-side imbalance, indicating strengthening underlying demand.

Overall, while multiple indicators point to a potential bottom forming, historical precedent suggests Bitcoin may require additional time to establish a base before a sustained rally unfolds.