$50B Reality Check Looms Over Bitcoin Miners’ AI Expansion, Says VanEck

VanEck says investor focus is moving away from AI deal announcements and toward the execution risks facing bitcoin miners chasing new revenue streams.

After two years of repositioning as AI infrastructure players, miners are now entering a critical phase — proving they can turn plans into reality.

In its latest report, VanEck said markets are shifting beyond headline partnerships to a more fundamental question: can miners finance and build the large-scale data centers required to meet AI demand?

The firm estimates the sector faces an immediate funding gap of around $50 billion, with long-term capital needs potentially rising to $221 billion if expansion plans proceed.

“Execution, not signing, becomes the next premium,” said analyst Griffin MacMaster and Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital asset research. So far, only about 25% of the AI and high-performance computing (HPC) capacity leased by miners has been delivered, leaving laggards exposed to valuation pressure.

The shift comes as the industry undergoes a structural transition. Following the profitability hit after the 2024 halving, many miners redirected power infrastructure toward AI workloads, betting on stronger margins from tech clients.

Core Scientific (CORZ) accelerated this pivot with a multibillion-dollar deal with CoreWeave, effectively transforming into an AI infrastructure provider. TeraWulf (WULF), Hut 8 (HUT), Iren (IREN), and Cipher Mining (CIFR) have also moved to lease capacity to AI and HPC customers. Meanwhile, Marathon Digital (MARA), Riot Platforms (RIOT), and CleanSpark (CLSK) are pursuing hybrid strategies that combine mining with AI expansion.

Despite bitcoin falling roughly 24% this year and broader crypto equities weakening, mining stocks have largely outperformed. Riot is up nearly 94% year-to-date, while Cipher Mining has gained about 62%, with similar strength seen across the sector.

The AI narrative has driven strong equity gains, with investors increasingly valuing miners on their AI potential rather than their core mining operations.

However, VanEck cautions that valuations remain difficult, as companies sit between declining mining revenues and AI businesses that have yet to generate meaningful cash flow.

For now, the firm points to “energized power” — operational power capacity — as the clearest valuation benchmark. Companies with signed AI deals trade at more than 10 times energized power, while those still pitching future projects command lower multiples.

VanEck also expects investor focus to shift toward tenant quality, noting that partnerships with investment-grade hyperscalers could bring lower financing costs and stronger valuations than deals with smaller AI startups.

The report highlights HIVE, Bitdeer (BTDR), Keel, and IREN as potential upside plays if they secure more contracts, while MARA, CLSK, and RIOT remain more closely tied to bitcoin price trends.

Ultimately, VanEck sees the next phase for miners as execution-driven — with success depending on their ability to finance, build, and operate large-scale infrastructure on time and on budget.