June Payrolls Disappoint as U.S. Economy Adds Just 57,000 Jobs

This morning’s data is expected to soften expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike as early as summer or early fall, as weaker-than-forecast employment figures point to a slowdown in U.S. hiring momentum.

U.S. job growth came in well below expectations in June, potentially delaying market pricing for near-term Fed tightening. The Nonfarm Payrolls report showed the economy added just 57,000 jobs.

That was far under economists’ forecast of 110,000 and a notable slowdown from May’s revised increase of 129,000, which had initially been reported as 172,000.

The unemployment rate dipped to 4.2%, versus expectations of 4.3% and May’s 4.3% reading. The decline came even as hiring weakened, driven by a fall in the labor force participation rate to 61.5% from 61.8%.

Bitcoin BTC $61,813.31 remained strong ahead of the release, holding above $61,000 and gaining roughly 4% over the past 24 hours.

Broader markets responded positively, with Nasdaq 100 futures rising around 0.7% after being nearly flat prior to the report. The 10-year Treasury yield also edged lower, down four basis points to 4.46%.

Interest rate expectations have been a key macro driver throughout the year. Earlier optimism around policy easing—supported by political pressure from President Trump for lower rates and speculation over changes in Federal Reserve leadership—had shaped expectations for 2026 cuts.

However, rising energy prices pushed inflation higher in the first half of the year, prompting a more hawkish stance from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who surprised markets with a tighter policy outlook at the most recent Fed meeting.

Following the jobs data, market pricing adjusted quickly. CME FedWatch data showed the probability of one or more rate hikes by September fell from around 65% to 50% shortly after the release.