Bitcoin Surges Beyond $61,000 as U.S. Employment Data Misses Expectations

$100K back on the radar as soft jobs data boosts bitcoin outlook

Matt Mena, senior crypto research strategist at 21Shares, said Thursday’s weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report adds to a bullish case for bitcoin, as signs of a cooling labor market reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep tightening policy.

He said bitcoin — often viewed as a key gauge of liquidity and risk sentiment — had already started to reflect the softer data ahead of its release. After briefly dropping toward a cycle low near $57,000, the asset rebounded and now appears set up for a stronger second half. With technical conditions improving, favorable July seasonality, and firmer on-chain signals, Mena said a move toward $100,000 by year-end is increasingly achievable if current trends hold.

U.S. job growth undershoots forecasts

The U.S. added about 52,000–57,000 jobs in June, falling well short of expectations near 110,000. May’s figure was also revised down to 129,000 from the initially reported 172,000.

The unemployment rate dipped to 4.2%, slightly below forecasts of 4.3%, though the decline came alongside a drop in labor force participation to 61.5% from 61.8%.

Bitcoin held around $61,300 following the data, up roughly 4% over the past 24 hours.

Equity futures moved higher after the release, with Nasdaq futures rising about 0.7%, while Treasury yields eased modestly.

Crypto outperforms ahead of macro catalyst

Cryptocurrencies were already showing strength before the report. Bitcoin climbed about 4.5% to $61,100, with ether also posting gains.

Solana led major tokens, jumping around 10% after unveiling its first formal onchain governance framework.

The employment data is expected to influence expectations around potential Federal Reserve rate decisions in the coming months.

Global markets remain uneven

Elsewhere, South Korea’s Kospi index dropped sharply, dragged lower by significant losses in major chip stocks amid renewed concerns over AI demand.

Bitcoin, however, continued to recover, moving back above $61,000. Softer inflation commentary from policymakers weighed on the U.S. dollar and provided support for risk assets.

Retail activity shows signs of decline

Binance recorded more than $2 billion in net outflows over the past week, signaling weaker retail participation.

Smaller bitcoin inflows — transactions under 1 BTC — have fallen to record lows, indicating reduced engagement from retail investors compared to previous market cycles.

Macro and currency moves shape bitcoin trend

Bitcoin traded above $60,000 during European hours as markets dialed back expectations for near-term rate hikes.

At the same time, the Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar, with bitcoin showing a growing correlation to currency movements as macro factors continue to drive price action.

Overall, softer U.S. labor data has improved risk sentiment, supporting bitcoin’s rebound and reinforcing expectations of a more favorable macro backdrop heading into the second half of the year.