JPMorgan Sees Bitcoin Leading Markets Over the Next 10 Years With Double-Digit Returns

JPMorgan Asset Management expects Bitcoin to deliver annualized returns of 10% over the next 10 years, exceeding its projections for U.S. stocks, bonds and gold, according to its latest long-term investment report.

The firm published the forecast in its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report on Tuesday. Its analysis includes three possible outcomes for Bitcoin: a base-case return of 10% annually, a bullish projection of 17% and a bearish estimate of a 9.7% annualized loss.

JPMorgan’s expectations for conventional assets are lower. The bank projects annual returns of 5.6% to 6.6% for U.S. bonds, 7.5% for large-cap U.S. equities, 7.7% for small-cap stocks and 5.5% for gold.

The report is notable because it marks the first time JPMorgan has provided a defined range for Bitcoin’s potential returns in its research.

Despite the relatively strong forecast, the bank continues to approach cryptocurrencies cautiously. CEO Jamie Dimon has been a prominent critic of Bitcoin, famously calling it a “fraud” in 2017. Although his language has softened in recent years, his skepticism toward the cryptocurrency has persisted.

JPMorgan Asset Management said Bitcoin’s volatility and unpredictable correlations with other asset classes remain significant obstacles to its broader adoption in investment portfolios.

The firm does not identify Bitcoin as a portfolio-diversification strategy. Instead, portfolio manager Dr. Sheena Shah and head of digital asset strategy Dennis Cristallo characterize it as a speculative asset and a potential hedge against monetary easing.

According to the executives, Bitcoin’s investment case primarily depends on expectations of expanding fiat currency supply or the future growth of asset trading on blockchain networks.

They noted that Bitcoin generally behaves like a high-beta risk asset, tracking movements in global money supply, even though some investors view it as “digital gold.” Its inconsistent relationship with other assets complicates portfolio modeling, while its lack of traditional cash flows makes valuation difficult. Adoption, regulation and liquidity could prove as influential as technology in determining its long-term performance.

Update (Oct. 20, 13:15 UTC): The report was published by JPMorgan Asset Management.