Gold hits $5,000 as bitcoin trades flat near $87,000 in an expanding macro-crypto disconnect: Asia Morning Briefing

Bitcoin’s onchain metrics continue to signal supply pressure and weak participation, even as markets increasingly treat gold’s move above $5,000 as a lasting macro shift rather than a temporary spike.

Gold extended its rally in early Asian trading, while bitcoin remained stuck near $87,000 in a low-conviction market still working through internal supply dynamics. The widening divergence appears driven by market structure rather than changes in broader risk sentiment.

CryptoQuant reports that bitcoin holders have begun selling at a loss for the first time since October 2023, as longer-term investors exit positions and newer buyers absorb supply. That rotation typically marks consolidation, not the start of a renewed uptrend.

Glassnode points to persistent overhead supply as the key constraint on price. Bitcoin continues to stall below short-term holder cost bases around $98,000, while heavy supply above $100,000 is likely to cap rallies in the near term.

Recent rebounds have flushed out breakeven sellers and loss-driven exits from investors who accumulated near the 2025 highs, reinforcing resistance and keeping upside fragile.

Derivatives and prediction markets echo that message. Futures volumes remain compressed, leverage deployment is muted, and recent price moves have occurred in thin liquidity. On Polymarket, traders are assigning higher odds to gold holding above $5,500 through mid-year, while expectations for a near-term bitcoin breakout continue to fade.

For now, gold is absorbing macro stress, while bitcoin remains in digestion mode, constrained by internal supply rather than external catalysts.

Market snapshot

• BTC: Bitcoin is trading near $87,000, with overhead supply, thin participation, and subdued leverage leaving rallies vulnerable to renewed selling.
• ETH: Ether is underperforming, reflecting weak demand, muted derivatives activity, and little evidence of rotation into higher-beta crypto assets.
• Gold: Gold pushed to a fresh record above $5,000 an ounce, supported by geopolitical risk, central-bank buying, and a softer U.S. dollar.
• Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei edged lower as Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed, with yen strength weighing on equities amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.

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