Cost of Betting Against Bitcoin Rises as Futures Positions Sink Toward 2026 Low

Bitcoin’s futures market is showing signs of reduced leveraged activity, with open interest near its lowest level of the year and funding rates indicating stronger demand for short positions.

Open interest stood at roughly 652,000 BTC at the time of writing, according to CoinGlass. That compares with a high of about 800,000 BTC reached earlier this year.

The decline suggests traders are pulling back from leveraged bitcoin positions despite the cryptocurrency gaining approximately 40% during the third quarter.

Negative Funding Favors Bearish Bets

Perpetual futures funding rates have moved below zero again, averaging around minus 0.3% across major exchanges.

Because every long position is matched by a short, funding rates show which side is willing to pay to maintain exposure. Negative funding means short sellers are paying long traders, indicating that traders betting on lower bitcoin prices are more aggressive.

The latest shift followed a roughly 2% bitcoin decline to $82,800 over 24 hours after President Donald Trump declined to rule out additional strikes on Iran before the U.S. midterm elections.

Despite the setback, bitcoin remains more than $20,000 above its summer cycle low and is still the top-performing asset for the third quarter.

Gold Also Drops as Dollar Strengthens

Bitcoin’s decline has occurred alongside weakness in other markets. Gold has fallen about 3% over the past 24 hours and is trading near $4,150 an ounce.

The bitcoin-to-gold ratio is nearing 20, measuring how many ounces of gold one bitcoin can purchase. The measure is approaching a level that would leave it positive for the year.

The U.S. dollar has also strengthened, with the DXY index rising above 101 as Treasury yields continue to increase.

The 10-year Treasury yield is above 5.2%, while the 30-year yield has climbed beyond 5.51%.

Treasury Yields Make Income Assets More Attractive

A resilient U.S. economy could be contributing to gains in the dollar and Treasury yields, while persistent inflation concerns may also be lifting borrowing costs.

Higher yields typically pressure existing bond prices. TLT, an ETF holding long-duration U.S. Treasuries, has fallen to approximately $79, its lowest level on record.

As Treasury yields rise, assets that generate interest become relatively more attractive compared with bitcoin and gold, which do not pay holders regular income.